Is the Syrian dictator about to get away with (mass) murder?
COLUMNIST
IS SYRIAN President Bashar alAssad about to go down in history as the man who got away with it?
The “it” in question is the slaughter of thousands of fellow Syrians at the hands of Government forces and militias and the alleged use of chemical weapons.
Officially, Assad is an international pariah who has no part to play in a post-conflict Syria. But horror at the outrages of the so-called Islamic State (IS) and alarm at the threat this terrorist army poses to the UK has led to a change in the way senior British figures talk about Assad and his henchmen.
Boris Johnson made no secret of his hopes that in the fight between the Assad Government and IS for control of Palmyra, the former wins.
He wrote: “Am I backing the Assad regime, and the Russians, in their joint enterprise to recapture that amazing site? You bet I am. That does not mean I trust Putin, and it does not mean that I want to keep Assad in power indefinitely. But we cannot suck and blow at once.”
During the debate which led to the authorisation of RAF attacks on IS in Syria, Swansea-born Julian Lewis, the Conservative chairman of the defence committee, said: “Air strikes alone are a dangerous diversion and distraction. What is needed is a grand military alliance involving not only the west but Russia and, yes, its Syrian Government clients too.”
Labour’s Gerald Kaufman also struck a pessimistic tone about the chances of getting rid of Assad’s regime, saying: “They murder their own people. They murdered 10,000 people in Hama alone.
“I would be delighted to see them got rid of, but they are not going to go. There is talk about negotiations in Vienna, but the assumption that somehow or other they are going to result in getting rid of Assad and the administration is a delusion.
“Putin, one of the most detestable leaders of any state in the world, will make sure that because they are his allies and they suit him, action against them is not going to be successful.”
Back in 2011, when the world watched a bloodied Gaddafi being paraded through the streets shortly before he was killed, Assad might have wondered if he would be the next despot to suffer such a brutal fate.
And again in 2013, when UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said there had been the “most significant confirmed use of chemical weapons against civilians since Saddam Hussein used them”, Assad might have expected a US or UK missile to come crashing through his ceiling.
He had crossed a “red line” put in place so that no dictator would be foolish enough to use these weapons because of the massive retaliation this would trigger.
Today, far from hiding – Gaddafistyle – in a drainage pipe or falling victim to the type of regime change that the Iraqi dictator experienced, Assad now enjoys the protection of the Russian military and a coalition of countries is bombing IS.
Even if he thinks his family will never regain control of all Syria, he must daydream about a happy future as the leader of Russia’s client state on the Mediterranean. And if that is not possible to arrange, he surely reckons there is a good chance he can negotiate immunity from prosecution as part of a last-ditch peace settlement before enjoying a comfortable retirement in a villa on the Black Sea.
Islamist extremists will celebrate if the West is seen to swing behind the Syrian regime. The thugs of IS will tell the inhabitants of Sunni villages that they are their last line of defence against Assad’s gunmen, Hezbollah’s militias, Iran’s agents and crusader bombers.
Faced with such a choice, who could blame any of the remaining families if they grab their few belong- ings and Europe?
The threat of this appalling conflict escalating further is real, regardless of whatever noises emerge from Vienna about a peace process.
If there is a chance of Assad reestablishing hegemony in Syria we can expect oil-sodden Gulf states to funnel cash to the most ruthless armed groups they can find to oppose him. People living in Shia, Alawite and Christian communities will be terrified at the thought of swathes of Syria being turned into a clone of Saudi Arabia (or much worse), and Iran will do everything possible to stop this happening.
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This civil war could ignite a regional conflict which devastates Lebanon, spills into Jordan, pits Saudi Arabia and Iran against each other and inflames sectarian tensions throughout the Middle East and North Africa.
There is the potential for millions to suffer but also a reasonable chance that Assad will follow Idi Amin’s career path and see out his days under blue skies in comfort.
Diplomats may decide that it’s time to exercise realpolitik and cut a deal but watching autocrats will take note and conclude: In the dictatorship game, you can get away with just about anything.