Corbyn-bounce falls flat as Ukip tipped for 9 seats

ANEW opinion poll shows Ukip are on course to win nine seats at next year’s Assembly elections – while the socalled ‘Corbyn-bounce’ for Welsh Labour has been wiped out.

The YouGov poll, commissioned by ITV Cymru Wales in conjunction with the Wales Governance Centre, shows Labour on 35% for May’s ballot, down by 4% since September.

One expert claimed the honeymoon period of Jeremy Corbyn was over in Wales. The last poll, conducted in September, had Labour up by 4% to 39%.

The Welsh Conservatives are in second place on 23%, with their figure unchanged, while Plaid Cymru’s position grew by 2% to 20% – with the party remaining in third place.

Ukip’s popularity grew 2% to 15%, while the Liberal Democrats’ standing remains in the single figures at 5%, down by one point.

Prof Roger Scully, of the Wales Governance Centre – part of Car- diff University, said UK-wide polls have suggested a downturn in Labour support.

And Prof Scully added: “Our new Barometer poll indicates that this is also now true in Wales – any honeymoon period for the new leader looks to be quite definitely over.”

The poll was conducted between November 30 and December 4, the week the party was riven with splits over Syria.

Under Prof Scully’s projections, Ukip would gain nine Assembly seats on regional lists.

Labour would lose three seats, going down to 27, with 25 in constituencies and two in regional lists.

The Tories’ seat tally would fall from 14 to 12, with seven in local constituencies and five in lists.

Plaid would be down to 10, with six in constituencies and four in lists, while the Liberal Democrats would win two constituency seats, down from the five AMs they currently have.

Prof Scully said Ukip “are on course to enter the Assembly for the first time in May in substantial numbers – within one seat of Plaid Cymru and three of the Conservatives”.

He projected that three constituency seats would change hands – the Tories would gain Cardiff North, Plaid would gain Llanelli and the Liberal Democrats would gain Cardiff Central, all from Labour.

A Welsh Labour spokesman said: “If the General Election taught us anything, it was to treat polls with great caution.”

Nathan Gill, Ukip MEP, said: “It’s clear to see Ukip has a firm standing in Wales and we are well on course to getting a stronghold elected in the Senedd, which will inject some much-needed energy and accountability back into democracy in Wales, something that most people would agree is a very good thing indeed.”