Tories and Plaid are all but neck and neck in Aberconwy

LATEST polling data suggests the closest contest in next week’s National Assembly election could be in Aberconwy, where just 0.1% separates Tory Janet-Finch-Saunders, who has held the seat for the last five years, from her Plaid Cymru rival, Trystan Lewis. According to YouGov’s most recent poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, the Conservatives are on 28.0% of the vote, against 27.9% for Plaid Cymru. Labour is a fairly distant third on 16.4%.

These, and all other projections, are derived from a Waleswide poll and calculated on the basis of a uniform national swing, which does not take account of local factors.

In Brecon and Radnorshire, which was won comfortably by the Conservatives in last year’s general election, Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Kirsty Williams is on 40.4% with Tory Gary Price on 27.4%.

In Cardiff Central, where Labour took the seat from the Liberal Democrats in last year’s general election with a comfortable majority, the party’s Jenny Rathbone, who narrowly won it in 2011, is said to be trailing the Lib Dems’ Eluned Parrott by 35.1% to 28.6%.

In Cardiff North, which Labour’s Julie Morgan is defending against a strong challenge from local Tory councillor Jayne Cowan, Labour is on 38.3% against 36.4% for the Conservatives.

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire is currently held by the Conservatives’ Angela Burns. But according to the poll she is trailing to Plaid Cymru’s Simon Thomas. He is said to be on 31.4%, with Ms Burns on 29.9%. Labour is trailing on 21.2%.

In Gower, Deputy Farming Minister Rebecca Evans, who has migrated from her previous regional seat in Mid and West Wales, leads former Welsh Conservative Party chairman Lyndon Jones by 38.8% to 23.9%.

In Llanelli, director of the Institute of Welsh Affairs Lee Waters is defending the seat against former Plaid Cymru AM Helen Mary Jones. The poll puts Ms Jones ahead by 41.1% to 30.4%.

Vale of Clwyd was lost by Labour to the Tories at last year’s general election. The poll puts Labour’s incumbent, Ann Jones, ahead of the Conservatives’ Sam Rowlands by 41.4% to 27.3%.

Labour’s long-serving Cabinet Minister Jane Hutt leads Tory Ross England by 38.1% to 30.0% in Vale of Glamorgan.