Global upheaval a challenge to Wales
THE races to lead the Republican and Democrat parties have narrowed with the scene set for a straight contest between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
Republicans who are horrified at the prospect of bombastic billionaire Mr Trump leading their party hope he will fail to win the necessary number of delegates and that a new candidate may emerge from the party’s convention.
But Mr Trump’s victory in all five primaries on Tuesday – and Ms Clinton’s triumph in four – suggest that the pair have almost unstoppable momentum.
Mr Trump’s freewheeling approach to policy-making and his unashamedly vulgar attacks on his opponents have appalled pundits but delighted a significant slice of the right-leaning electorate. He has destroyed the hopes of more polished Republicans.
His unfavourability ratings are so high it is hard to imagine him beating Ms Clinton. But commentators earlier scoffed at the idea that he would derail the presidential aspirations of some of his party’s most famous names.
The arrival of Barack Obama in the UK last week reminded us of the power that a president still possesses to intervene in global debates. For at least a decade to come the US president will always be the most powerful person in a room.
World leaders are now having to prepare for the possibility that figure might be Mr Trump. Imagine how different the atmosphere in Newport would have been in 2014 if the arrival of Mr Trump and not Mr Obama was imminent.
In the US Mr Obama has weathered spells of low poll ratings during his years in the White House but he has enjoyed rock-star status in Europe and beyond. A President Trump would be unlikely to inspire such passions.
His arrival might make British politicians less keen to stress the strength of the UK-US “special relationship”. In fact, it might spur policy-makers to prepare for what for- eign policy experts multi-polar world.
If China can get over some immediate obstacles, develop a consumer economy, and develop military might that matches its financial clout, the United States’ dominance in geopolitics will be truly challenged.
In such a world it will be important that the UK and Western democracies do not slouch back and expect the US to resolve crises and settle disputes. We will have to articulate our values as states proud to champion liberty in the face of autocracy.
If Ms Clinton wins the presidency the transatlantic romance that has characterised the Obama years may well continue. Her memoir is full of respectful appreciation for British figures and her keen interest in the military suggests she will champion Nato’s role in the 21st century.
The challenge for Wales is to nurture cultural and business links with the US and emerging economies, but also take opportunities to champion our deep-rooted values of inclusion, solidarity, freedom and compassion. The recycled paper content of UK newspapers in 2014 was 78.5% call the The Western Mail newspaper is published by Media Wales a subsidiary company of Trinity Mirror PLC, which is a member of IPSO, the Independent Press Standards Organisation. The entire contents of The Western Mail are the copyright of Media Wales Ltd. It is an offence to copy any of its contents in any way without the company’s permission. If you require a licence to copy parts of it in any way or form, write to the Head of Finance at Six Park Street.