Labour majority win is now ‘unthinkable’

IT IS “unthinkable” that Labour will win a majority at the next general election so it must be able to form a governing partnership with other parties, according to a hard-hitting report by the Fabian Society.

Its polling analysis suggests Labour’s share of the vote could fall to 20%, sending its number of MPs tumbling from 231 today to as few as 140.

The Labour-linked think tank warns that in order to win a majority of just one Jeremy Corbyn’s party would need to secure more than three million votes more than the Conservatives.

However, it argues Labour “must not despair” because only 30 seats need to be won for it to be able to govern with other centre-left parties.

Andrew Harrop, the General Secretary of the Fabian Society and the author of the report, argues that “a wounded Labour party will have to get used to the idea that it will need to work alongside others”.

Winning a majority of one would require an electoral swing of 8.7%, compared to the 4.6% that was required in 2015.

Mr Harrop writes: “In other words, Labour is around twice as far from victory as it was in the run up to 2015... [With] fewer Labour seats to start with and fewer competitive marginals, the mountain Labour has to climb is both higher and steeper.”

However, he does not think the

to winning an outright majority.

The Senedd’s one Liberal Democrat AM, Kirsty Williams, has the Welsh Government education portfolio, and Labour and Plaid Cymru struck a deal in May which saw Carwyn Jones returned as First Minister.

Mr Doughty said: “Obviously the latest polling is deeply concerning for all those who wish to see a Labour Government return to office in the UK. However, the picture is not exactly the same across the entire country and in Wales Welsh Labour continues to enjoy much higher polling ratings...

“However, it is absolutely clear that all Labour representatives need to look closely at how we are listening to and communicating with the electorate on a range of issues from the future of the economy to immigration.”

He added: “Obviously, it is crucial to be able to work outside party boundaries on issues of common concern [but] there are a number of parties that I would never countenance working with, one of which is Ukip... However, my priority would always be a majority Labour Government at all levels, whether in the UK or Wales, but I am somebody who has always believed in building broader coalitions on matters of common interest, whether that is Europe, climate change or the fight against extremism.”

Plaid Cymru Carmarthen East and Dinefwr MP Jonathan Edwards said his party’s MPs would be open to discussions but the ball was in Labour’s court.

He said: “It’s inconceivable at the moment to see how Labour could win a majority in the House of Commons on its own and therefore the Labour party really needs to drop some of its very tribal and sectarian baggage... The reality of the situation is that the political environment has completely changed from the two-party state in the UK.”

Caerphilly Labour MP Wayne David wanted his party to focus on developing policies that can win majority support.

He said: “My own view is that the Labour party needs to be aiming for a win at the next general election. I think there is a danger of us slipping into defeatism and [we] need to be going out for a clear Labour majority. Of course, it’s always sensible in a democracy to look at all options but that’s the role of the Fabians, to think in many ways, the unthinkable.”

The report comes on the same day former Labour leader Neil Kinnock told the Western Mail in a wide-ranging interview how he did not expect to see another Labour Prime Minister in his lifetime, calling on the party to put its “absolute focus” on “the interests of working people” to recover.

“As I’ve said publicly, unless things change a lot I probably won’t live to see [another Labour Prime Minister],” Lord Kinnock said. “That’s just recognising reality, both the reality of biology and the reality of politics.”

Today’s report also argues Labour faces a “Brexit dilemma”, stating that it is “losing as many votes to the Liberal Democrats as to the two main right-wing parties combined”.

While the “Conservatives and Lib Dems are both advancing by attracting new support from one side only”, Labour has “no choice but to reach out to people in both camps”. It must “retain remain voters and regain leave voters”.

Mr Harrop claims the threat from Ukip is being “exaggerated in some quarters”, arguing that “even if Ukip was tied with Labour in votes cast the smaller party would only win a handful of MPs”.

Retaining the support of people who backed Labour at the last election must be a priority, he writes, but only a “little over half of Labour’s 2015 voters say they support the party today”. The number of MPs is due to fall from 650 to 600 – going down in Wales from 40 to 29 – but Mr Harrop says the boundary changes are “a distraction given Labour’s other problems”.

Speaking ahead of the launch of his report, Stuck: How Labour is Too Weak to Win, and Too Strong to Die, Mr Harrop said: “As things stand Labour is on track to win fewer than 200 seats. Even if Labour recovers, it has almost no chance of securing a majority in a general election, because it needs over three million more votes than the Conservatives.”