EU countries will drive a hard bargain with Brexit, says Sir Ivan

EUROPEAN Union countries will want to play “hardball” with the UK over Brexit and refuse to strike a free trade deal unless it contributes to the Brussels budget during a transition period, the former ambassador to the EU has said.

Sir Ivan Rogers, who resigned in January after telling Theresa May that Brussels diplomats thought it might take 10 years to reach a deal, predicted the issue of money would come to a head at a “gory” EU summit in autumn 2018.

The Prime Minister wants to strike a new free trade deal with the EU after Brexit but also avoid a “cliff edge” for businesses faced with adjusting to new arrangements, and ministers have acknowledged that a transition period may be necessary.

Sir Ivan said that in the EU “the key players, the key officials, the key technocrats, the key theologians” think a new relationship may not be agreed until 2022 even if negotiations proceed “unprecedentedly fast”.

And before that deal is struck, European countries may want to keep hold of “British dosh” during a transition period to avoid a squeeze on the Brussels budget. His comments come amid reports that the EU is seeking a 60bn euro (£51bn) “divorce deal” before negotiating a new free trade agreement. Appearing before the Commons Brexit Select Committee, Sir Ivan said: “From all the (EU)27 (countries), albeit in different ways, depending on whether they are net recipients or net contributors, the budgetary issue now comes to the fore. “And I think we can expect a number of them to think – well, if the British want a future trade deal, and they want some form of transitional arrangement before a future trade deal, all big ifs, then this will come together at some gory European Council in the autumn of 2018 and it will come together with the money equation. “There will be some who will want to play hardball and say, ‘well, absent British money over a transitional period, why the hell should we give them any trade deal?’ “I’m not saying that’s a majority view, I wouldn’t be in a posi-