Carwyn’s key role in the constitution

FOR several years Carwyn Jones has been advocating a constitutional convention to work out a sustainable future for the UK.

The idea hasn’t had the traction it deserves.

Mr Jones is right to say the UK is at risk – and more so now than at any time since most of Ireland left it nearly 100 years ago.

The danger comes from a Conservative Government that is insisting on a hard Brexit and ramping up a war of words with the SNP.

At the root of the problem is the triumphalism of the Conservative Party and the weakness of the Labour Opposition at Westminster. Theresa May and her ministers have got used to getting their own way without much trouble – give or take a hiccup or two provided for a very short time by the House of Lords.

The difficulty is that the people of Scotland don’t take kindly to being patronised. Mrs May’s advisers have probably calculated that the SNP couldn’t win a second referendum. It’s true that, until now, many people in Scotland who are happy to vote for the SNP haven’t been prepared to vote for independence. But the best way to change that is for the UK Government to be seen to be overruling the democratically elected Scottish Parliament. Next week Nicola Sturgeon will, with the support of the Scottish Greens, win the Parliament’s approval to make a formal request to Westminster for another referendum. If the UK Government turns the request down, we can expect an upsurge of anti-UK Government feeling among Scottish voters.

Carwyn Jones understands this point very well, even though Wales is in a different place politically. The majority of voters here backed Brexit, and there is little appetite for Welsh independence.

Nevertheless, whatever happens in the next couple of years, the status quo is not an option. If Ms Sturgeon gets her referendum and this time the Yes campaign wins, Wales would be in an immensely vulnerable position within a rump UK. England would be even more dominant and all bets would be off in terms of the future of Northern Ireland.

Mr Jones knows that for his idea of a federal UK to have any chance of success, he initially has to persuade his party colleagues in England and Scotland. If he manages to do that, he can try to build a cross-party consensus.

Before last year’s referendum vote for Brexit, it was easy to consign the Welsh First Minister’s constitutionally focused ideas to the political margins. But there’s no way of seeing the decision to leave the EU as anything but a constitutional choice with profound political consequences. It’s right that those consequences should be considered in a coherent manner rather than reacted to on an ad hoc basis, as appears to be happening at present.

Everyone who wants a fair outcome for all four nations in the UK should be prepared to support serious discussion about future constitutional arrangements, regardless of their chosen option.