AUSTRALIA: THE THREAT WE FEAR IS JONATHAN DAVIES
HOW many times have you heard it said Wales are slow starters and get better as campaigns progress?
Lions star Jonathan Davies was the latest to point to this fact, and it’s difficult to argue with the record books when it comes to autumn internationals, with Wales’ last opening victory being a 40-3 thumping of Romania at Wrexham in 2002.
A certain Steve Hansen was coach of the Dragons and they went on to beat Fiji 58-14 and Canada 32-21 before crumbling to a 43-17 defeat to the All Blacks.
Since then, Wales have lost nine of their opening fixtures during autumn series and drawn one, 29-29 with Australia in 2006 when Gareth Jenkins was in charge and following a comeback orchestrated by substitute James Hook.
On the face of it, the record during the Warren Gatland era, which began nine years ago, makes dire reading, with seven defeats in as many matches.
Here are the facts...
How Wales have fared in their opening autumn series fixture since Warren Gatland was appointed coach in 2008 2008: Wales 15 South Africa 20 2009: Wales 12 New Zealand 19 2010: Wales 16 Australia 25 2012: Wales 12 Argentina 26 2013: Wales 15 South Africa 24 2014: Wales 28 Australia 33 2016: Wales 8 Australia 32
What can be read into those results? Apart from Argentina, Wales have faced a member of the southern hemisphere big-three in all their opening Tests.
As Wales defence coach Shaun Edwards said: “Warren never ever takes an easy option. If you look at our fixtures since Warren took over, they have always been tough in the autumn. We nearly always play the likes of Australia, South Africa and New Zealand.” Do those countries have an advantage because they’ve been together for months and are coming off the back of the Rugby Championship? Yes and no! It depends what shape they are in coming out of that tournament, which usually ends in early October.
South Africa were in mess last season and went into meltdown with defeats against England, minnows Italy and Wales last November. Australia hammered Wales 32-8 in Cardiff, pipped Scotland by a point and France by two before coming unstuck against Ireland 27-24.
And New Zealand’s Tier One world record winning streak of 19 was ended 40-29 by the Irish in Chicago earlier that month.
The flip side is the Kiwis, Wallabies and Springboks are at the end of their seasons and are mentally and physically tired, which is the excuse Wales often trot out when they head off on tour at the end of the European season.
So make of it what you want!
What about this year? Australia have pitched up in Wales ready for Saturday’s Test full of confidence after beating the All Blacks in Brisbane, avoiding defeat in their last six Tests and finishing runners-up to the world champions in the Rugby Championship.
South Africa have also regrouped and have steadily improved during the campaign, coming ever so close to beating Hansen’s New Zealand and drawing twice with Australia.
Oddly enough, it’s the All Blacks who seem to have dipped which, I guess, is understandable because they had the huge mental high of facing the Lions in a three-Test series.
They were unconvincing against the Barbarians at Twickenham at the weekend, lost in Australia after previously being pushed all the way by the Wallabies in Dunedin, and winning by a point in Cape Town against South Africa.
And Hansen has left big hitters like Brodie Retallick and Ben Smith at home, which will encourage a new-look France when they face them on Saturday night in Paris.
However, with their strength in depth, the All Blacks remain the benchmark although it’s a shame they’re not facing back-to-back Six Nations champions England this autumn.
How does Wales’ record against New Zealand, Australia and South Africa during the Gatland years compare with that of the other home unions? Wales have had more fixtures against the southern hemisphere big-three, but their record is the worst in terms of the number of victories or win percentage with even Scotland, who have beaten Australia three times and South Africa once, doing better.
Ireland have beaten all of the big three, racking up hat-tricks against Australia and South Africa while a year ago triumphing over New Zealand for the first time after some previous close shaves. Eight of England’s 10 wins have come against Australia, but they have only accounted for South Africa and New Zealand once apiece.
Here’s how the Home Unions have fared versus the southern hemisphere big three
ENGLAND
Played 32, won 10, drawn one, lost 21
IRELAND
Played 24, won 7, drawn one, lost 16
SCOTLAND
Played 17, won 4, lost 13
WALES
Played 35, won 3, lost 32
How have England, Ireland and Scotland performed against the big boys in the opening fixture of their autumn campaigns since 2008? England have won twice, against Australia in 2013 and South Africa last year, while Ireland beat the Springboks in 2014 and New Zealand in 2016.
So, thanks to Ireland, the argument the Guinness PRO14, as it is now, doesn’t prepare players for an autumn series doesn’t wash.
Although Wales have been beaten every time, they pushed South Africa all the way in 2008, New Zealand in a huge confrontation the following year, Australia in 2010 and, in a brilliant match in 2014, which the Wallabies sneaked late-on 33-28 despite being outscored 4-3 in tries.
So, it’s not all doom and gloom about Wales’ chances of breaking their autumn opener duck this weekend?
Not at all! From a Celtic point of view, Joe Schmidt’s Ireland, who are no better than Wales, have proved it can be done and they will be favourites against South Africa this weekend.
When you look at the Irish and Scotland’s record against Australia, plus the superiority of England over Michael Cheika’s team in recent times, there shouldn’t be any reason why Wales can’t beat them for the first time in 13 attempts since the thrilling 21-18 autumn series finale of 2008.
Let’s see if Gatland can deliver!