Ireland holds the key to Brexit deal

BRITAIN’S relationship with the Republic of Ireland is crucial to securing a Brexit trade deal.

Major progress needs to be made on the issue of the Irish border if talks are to begin next month on the UK’s future trading arrangements with the EU.

Both countries want to avoid a return to a “hard” border and EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier has called on the UK to come up its own proposals to solve the dilemmas surrounding what will be Britain’s only land border with the union.

Mr Barnier could scarcely have been blunter, stating that “those who wanted Brexit must offer solutions”.

The Republic now finds itself in a unique position. It is fully aware that the return of customs posts could have a disastrous impact on the peace process, and yet its economy would be severely damaged if Brexit made it harder to trade with the UK or transport goods across Britain.

It is not in Ireland’s interests to allow the UK to jump into trade talks without having sorted out the border. But Ireland also has a greater incentive than other EU state to ensure that the UK does not leave the union without a deal.

If Britain fails to put forward credible solutions it will find that Ireland has the power and influence to stop Brexit talks progressing. But if it can address the concerns of the Republic it will gain a valuable partner in the pursuit of frictionless trade with the EU.

With a crucial summit scheduled to take place next month, Theresa May and Brexit Secretary David Davis need to make progress quickly. Failure to do so will deepen anxiety in the business sector that the UK will fail to secure favourable transition arrangements; it will also intensify pressure on Mrs May from eurosceptics in her own party to give up on the negotiations and instead rely on World Trade Organisation rules.

But the key reason to try and win a deal on the border is that a return to violence in Northern Ireland would be disastrous for the UK. It is in nobody’s interest for the country to start out on its post-Brexit future against a backdrop of civil strife.

Any customs infrastructure would be an instant target for dissidents who have opposed the peace process from the start. Acts of sabotage would be bad enough, but attacks on personnel would plunge Ireland north and south into a crisis.

Northern Ireland’s politics is in a precarious state, with governments in Dublin and London anxious to see a return to power-sharing. The invisible nature of the border – and common membership of the single market and customs union – has helped forge trade and tourism links in recent years, but extra bureaucracy and lengthy checks would put this process into reverse.

The UK Government should be in no doubt about the potential for trade disruption to hurt Welsh ports. In the time that’s left, a deal that works for all must be won.