Warnings to Wales as Brexit a bed of thorns
It doesn’t mean we’ll stay in the single market (whatever Northern Ireland does)...
Nicola Sturgeon, Carwyn Jones and London mayor Sadiq Khan have all said that if Northern Ireland was offered a deal, they would expect the same deal. But they must realistically know that will never happen.
Scotland, Northern Ireland and London voted to remain, while Wales voted 52.5% to leave. Three of the four, however, have people in charge who have been explicit about their desire to remain within the single market. The other, however, appears to have come close to an opportunity to do that.
Yet the one will be denied what the other three covet and it’s all because of a seemingly impossible bind created by the unique dynamics of the island of Ireland.
While both members of the EU, Ireland and Northern Ireland are part of the single market and customs union and therefore share the same regulations and standards, allowing a soft or invisible border between the two.
When Britain leaves it risks a return to a hard or policed border. The only way to avoid this post-Brexit is for regulations on both sides to remain more or less the same in key areas including food, animal welfare, medicines and product safety.
The Good Friday agreement solved a conflict that led to the deaths of 3,600 people.
One of the things it ensured was the removal of a hard border between Northern and the Republic of Ireland. There have already been warnings that a return to a hard border would put the peace process at risk.
Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney has said that only if Northern Ireland remain in the customs union and the single market could the invisible border with Northern Ireland continue.
This is one pro-EU concession that even ardent Brexiteers might make, given the complexity of the situation.
But the DUP is opposed to keeping all EU rules after Brexit as they say it will mean that over time Ireland will unify again – something they don’t want. The power they wielded on Monday comes since the Conservative government drew up a deal with the DUP after the disastrous snap election.
Carwyn Jones said yesterday that it could be that the policy and interests of the whole of the UK could be being set by 10 MPs who are the largest party in Northern Ireland but “not a party who represent the views of the whole of Northern Ireland”.
At lunchtime on Monday it looked as though Northern Ireland would be getting a special deal, one not being afforded to Scotland or Wales.
That deal would have meant that Northern Ireland could effectively remain in the single market and customs union after Brexit.
Mr Jones has said Wales needs to stay in the single market, using data from various think-tanks and the Treasury itself to warn of the catastrophic damage to the Welsh economy he believes will be caused by a so-called hard Brexit.
But Theresa May showed on Monday that she doesn’t have the support to offer Northern Ireland that deal, let alone start to prepare optouts for Wales and parts like it.
But yesterday, in a clear message, David Davis said: “We will not be treating one part of the United Kingdom differently from any other part.”
In short, Wales, a country which voted to leave and is run by a Labour government, doesn’t have the bargaining chip that the DUP has for Northern Ireland. It doesn’t mean we’ll keep border-free access to Ireland...
Even if Northern Ireland and the Republic’s “regulatory alignment” were able to continue with the same trade rules, Wales wouldn’t be part of them.
But it is likely to impact on Welsh ports...
On Anglesey there are 1,000 people working in the ports at Holyhead, the second-busiest port in Britain in terms of ferries transporting goods.
If we crash out without a deal with the EU on imports and exports then thousands of lorries will face lengthy checks each day.
This would be a nightmare scenario for communities around Fishguard and Holyhead. It would also be devastating for employers in Wales who export material.
Leanne Wood has said that a hard border “would be a disaster for the Welsh economy”.
An Assembly committee has already warned that “the UK’s future relationship with the European Union could fundamentally change how our ports in Wales operate”. They warned three things: There are risks that a soft border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will disadvantage Welsh ports and lead to a displacement of traffic from Welsh ports to ports in England and Scotland via Northern Ireland.
New customs arrangements – particularly if we leave the European Customs Union – will pose a set of technological and logistical challenges to how our ports operate.
Many Welsh ports lack the appropriate infrastructure and physical capacity to accommodate new border controls and customs checks.
The committee said that their worst fears were of lengthy delays at our ports, disruption to wider supply chains and tailbacks on our roads.
It doesn’t mean that relationships between Wales and the UK government are going to get any easier...
There has been plenty of strong language between Cardiff Bay and Westminster both before and since the referendum.
It’s more than just two leaders of different parties throwing the odd insult at each other.
In June, Carwyn Jones described the deal between the Conservatives and the DUP as a “straight bung to keep a weak Prime Minister and a faltering government in office”.
Yesterday, he said that Mrs May had “capitulated” after a phone call from Arlene Foster.
He’s already said that the Withdrawal Bill is a “blatant power grab”.
Mr Jones warned it could be that the policy and interests of the whole of the UK are shaped by 10 MPs from Northern Ireland who, he says, don’t even represent the views of all their own people, let alone the whole of the UK.
In September, Mr Jones said that devolved governments had to work together.
“Theresa May, Nicola Sturgeon and I all have very different political positions, but an issue as important as Brexit requires us to put our differences aside and work together to provide stability for the sake of our economy, jobs and public services. One government cannot simply hijack powers from the other two.”
If Mrs May continues to make deals away from Mrs Sturgeon or Mr Jones, there will continue to be tense words.