Gatland must back his men to run from deep

RUGBY SENSE FROM THE S4C PUNDIT

ANYONE who tells you that they can predict what will happen, with any degree of certainty, in the Six Nations opener between Wales and Scotland has a tenuous grasp on the truth.

It’s easy to make a case for either team to win... or either side to lose, perhaps?

What we do have some proper clarity over is how Scotland will play.

Gregor Townsend has a philosophy on how the game should be played. It was evident as an attacking-minded fly-half and also when he took charge of coaching Glasgow.

Since he became boss of the national side, Scotland have embodied the Townsend way of playing. It is thrilling rugby.

He picks players to fit the style and is prepared to take risks. Townsend has an inventive mind and would rather have players who can react spontaneously, than ones who can keep to the plan.

However, I would be surprised if Townsend hasn’t prepared something special for this game. He may feel that his side needs an edge to get over the hurdle of securing an elusive away win.

Something unexpected to unsettle Wales. What? I suspect he will look to move players around a lot, use the back three in unusual situations and have some trick to get the forwards into the game.

The bigger question will be how Wales will look to play. Scoring tries has been the challenge and the adoption of a more expansive mindset heralded the use of a second five-eighth in the autumn.

We saw glimpses of this, but it was not sustained. I felt that Warren Gatland was a reluctant advocate of this type of game plan and so I was not surprised when I saw his team selection for the Scottish clash.

A reliable indicator of how the coach wants his team to play comes with the type of personnel he picks in two key positions.

The first is openside, a position that can be played in so many ways, but the individual who is selected there gives you an insight into the coach’s mind.

Gatland had two genuine footballers to pick from at 7, Justin Tipuric or James Davies. He chose neither. Instead, Gatland opted for the more physical option of Josh Navidi, who had an outstanding autumn but has barely played openside since then. Navidi could fit in anywhere in the back row, but isn’t a footballer in the mould of Tipuric or Davies.

The other position is 12, where Wales have declined to pick a second five-eighth. Owen Williams was a key individual in the early autumn, but Gatland has preferred to go for the familiarity of a regional midfield by choosing Hadleigh Parkes inside Scott Williams at 13.

There is merit in that sentiment, especially if they play the ‘Scarlets way’. But if you are going to commit to that, then you also need to pick an openside who can complement it. As Davies does for the Scarlets so well. I suspect Wales are looking to play low-risk, error-free rugby. They will not want to let this game open up and lose structure.

They will look for secondary shoves in the scrum and pressurise the referee into making decisions and awarding penalties. From there they will kick for position and then use the abrasive back-row runners and the tenacious scrumhalf to take on the fringes.

One dilemma Gatland faces is how to manage the kicking game. Traditionally, Wales have used box-kicks and cross-field kicks from their own 22 up to the opposition 10m line.

Furthermore, they used Dan Biggar’s ability to reclaim high kicks as a weapon.

For their many positives, Wales’ new half-backs are not quite as expert as Biggar and Rhys Webb in kick accuracy, thereby handing the Scottish back three of Stuart Hogg, Finn Russell and Tommy Seymor exactly what they want.

Nothing would please me more than to see Wales engage with Scotland and beat them in a constellation of open rugby. I think Wales could win like that.

I can also see how Wales could squeeze out a win through the control of their pack. But I can see no future to winning that way.

Scotland adopt a modern game and ultimately I think if they play well, Wales will have their hands full.

For the first time in 20 years, I make Scotland favourites to win in Cardiff. A high-scoring match... in which Townsend’s team scrape a win..

Gwyn Jones is a member of S4C’s Clwb Rygbi presentation team. Clwb Rygbi will have coverage of every Wales match during the 2018 NatWest 6 Nations. First up is Wales v Scotland, from 1.30pm on S4C.