Henshaw and Furlong absences could tip the balance in Wales’ favour
THE bookmakers are holding firm on a eight-point home advantage going into Saturday’s Six Nations clash between the two Celtic rivals in Dublin.
But while Wales have been able to recall the Lions cavalry — Liam Williams, Leigh Halfpenny and Dan Biggar — following their controversial 12-6 defeat at Twickenham, unbeaten Ireland have been hit by some significant injury setbacks.
The long-term loss of centre Robbie Henshaw with a damaged shoulder was expected, but head coach Joe Schmidt would have hoped Tadhg Furlong and Iain Henderson — both Lions tourists last summer and both key cogs in this Irish team — would have been able to overcome hamstring issues to face Wales.
Instead, Warren Gatland’s side will take on a very different-looking Irish team to recent years.
ROB LLOYD assesses the strengths and weaknesses of both match-day squads... BACK THREE Gatland has decided to stock up on experience and aerial ability by adding some big guns into his armoury.
Liam Williams and Leigh Halfpenny will have key roles as Wales look to counter the tactical kicking of Ireland’s halfbacks, while Gatland has even been afforded the luxury of benching a player of George North’s Test match calibre.
There was a rookie feel to the Welsh back three at Twickenham and Owen Farrell and George Ford took full advantage, but on Saturday, Ireland will be wary of feeding the fit-again Williams in particular.
It’s same again from Schmidt for his back-field trio with Rob Kearney, Keith Earls and rising star Jacob Stockdale linking up for a third successive match.
Earls is playing some of the best rugby of his career, while the powerful Stockdale is a menacing figure out wide, if at times vulnerable defensively. Kearney is one of the safest around under the high ball. IRELAND 7.5 WALES 7.5 CENTRES Only Scott Williams survives from the respective midfields that started in Cardiff during last year’s Championship.
Williams and his Scarlets colleague Hadleigh Parkes have had little problem transferring their regional form onto the international stage with former England centre Will Greenwood comparing Parkes to All Black great Conrad Smith in naming the adopted West Walian as one of his 12 best players in the Championship so far.
The loss of Robbie Henshaw to a shoulder injury has left a major void in the Irish midfield, with Munster’s Chris Farrell preferred to Garry Ringrose — who plays for Leinster this weekend — as a partner for Bundee Aki. It is a combination that fared impressively against Argentina in the autumn.
Aki and Parkes will be no strangers, having come across each other in New Zealand provincial rugby as well as the PRO14.
Wales will feel they can expose a potential weakness in this area, as they did to a new-look Scotland duo in round one. IRELAND 6 WALES 7 HALF-BACKS At his press conference at the Vale Resort on Thursday lunchtime, Wales defence coach Shaun Edwards used the word ‘legendary’ to describe the Irish pairing of Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray and there has been plenty spoken about the influential Lions half-backs over the course of this week.
Wales did a superb disruption job on both players in Cardiff last year and will no doubt have been given a similar blueprint by Gatland and Edwards this time around.
The selection of Biggar ahead of Rhys Patchell and Gareth Anscombe suggests Gatland will be looking for more control from 10, as well as utilising Biggar’s renowned prowess in the air.
As for Gareth Davies, he will be drawing on his last visits to Dublin in Scarlets colours, where he left scorch marks on the RDS and Aviva turf. IRELAND 9 WALES 7.5 FRONT ROW The big talking point is the failure of British and Irish Lion Tadhg Furlong to overcome the hamstring tear that saw him limp off early against Italy.
Make no bones about it, Furlong leaves a cavernous hole at tight-head and although Leinster team-mate Andrew Porter is a muscular, power-packed modern-day forward, he is still raw in the position having recently switched across the scrum.
The Welsh front row of Rob Evans, Ken Owens and Samson Lee have been one of the successes for Gatland in the opening two rounds.
Although they weren’t as dominant as expected over an injury-hit Scotland scrum, they did gain an ascendancy as the game went on and had the edge over an England scrum lauded by Eddie Jones beforehand.
Gatland has also tended to bring off Evans early in the second half, which means the Scarlets loose-head has a licence to go full throttle from the opening whistle
As for the hookers, Owens and Rory Best, with 164 international appearances between they give you what is says on the tin — wholehearted commitment and a calm assurance in the heat of the battle.
Both have just one line-out blip to their name so far. IRELAND 7 WALES 8 SECOND ROW Ireland won’t be short of height at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday with the 6ft 8in James Ryan and 6ft 10in Devin Toner combining for the first time in the Championship.
But for all the qualities possessed by the twin towerblock and the undoubted potential of 21-year-old Ryan, the absence of Ulsterman Iain Henderson is significant.
Henderson is a fourth back-rower in his carrying and defensive work and few could have argued if he had earned a Lions Test jersey last summer.
It’s same again for a third successive match for Welsh locks Cory Hill and Alun Wyn Jones. Hill has continued his impressive emergence as an international forward, showing up well with the ball against Scotland and then delivering some big defensive moments against England.
Alongside him is one of the best second rows of the modern game and that is Wales may have the edge here. IRELAND 7 WALES 7.5 BACK ROW There’s some big-game animals absent from this tussle — Sam Warburton, Sean O’Brien, Taulupe Faletau and Jamie Heaslip among them.
But it says a lot for the strength in depth of both nations that Schmidt and Gatland can turn out breakaway trios of this calibre.
The Lions duo of Peter O’Mahony and the carrying machine that doubles up as CJ Stander will look to gain the upper hand in the close-quarter exchanges, with Dan Leavy offering plenty of physical bite himself at openside.
In the athletic Aaron Shingler and