One year to avoid a botched Brexit

THIS day next year the UK is due to leave the European Union. A transition deal has been secured in a bid to avoid a “cliff edge” for businesses and the UK Government wants to put as much EU law as possible onto the statute book to ensure the minimum of disruption.

But the challenge of securing a free trade deal like no other ahead of Brexit Day is a monumental one that will stretch the skills of ministers and diplomats to the limit.

Britain wants to enjoy frictionless trade with the EU while being able to strike international trade deals. The UK faces the challenge of persuading member states to back a deal which would allow us to enjoy many of the chief benefits of EU membership plus trading freedoms denied to countries within the block.

The chances of getting a final deal agreed in the coming 12 months look slim. Even if the bare bones of a deal could be agreed, the treaty would need to be ratified by national and regional governments – each of which will have their own priorities.

Getting Brexit legislation through the Commons may prove equally taxing. There was fury when it emerged Britain will not leave the Common Fisheries Policy in March 2019, creating the potential for a rebellion.

A December defeat demonstrated the readiness of Tory MPs to defy the whips. Even with the support of the DUP, the Government will be under pressure in a succession of knife-edge votes.

There is the potential for rebellions over the customs union and the Northern Ireland border. Each time Mrs May’s administration faces the prospect of defeat she will rue the day she decided to go for the snap election which vaporised her majority.

The challenge of avoiding a hard border in Ireland is one that cannot be ducked. Dissidents who have loathed the peace process will use the issue to oppose the restoration of power-sharing and some could well turn to violence.

However, every effort must also be made to keep trade and travel flowing between the Republic and Welsh ports. It would be deeply unfortunate if a botched Brexit damaged this key trading relationship.

The priority must be protecting the jobs that allow parents to put food on the table. No ideological prize is worth pushing families into poverty, and MPs in all parties have a duty to their constituents to avoid a bad deal. The Western Mail newspaper is published by Media Wales a subsidiary company of Trinity Mirror PLC, which is a member of IPSO, the Independent Press Standards Organisation. The entire contents of The Western Mail are the copyright of Media Wales Ltd. It is an offence to copy any of its contents in any way without the company’s permission. If you require a licence to copy parts of it in any way or form, write to the Head of Finance at Six Park Street. The recycled paper content of UK newspapers in 2016 was 62.8%