Home comforts seem to be in Swans’ favour
FOUR games to go, three at home, their fate in their own hands.
Had you offered Swansea City fans, let alone Carlos Carvalhal and his players, such a scenario on the day of the Portuguese’s appointment in December then all parties would have accepted with alacrity.
But that does not mean it makes matters any less nervy as we enter the final three weeks of the Premier League campaign.
What key moments are to come? Has the vital turning point already occurred? How many points are needed? Will it go to the final day?
All will be known one way or the other come 5pm on Sunday, May 13.
But how much of a difference can Swansea having 75 per cent of their remaining games on home turf make, particularly when Stoke have one of their final three at home, and Southampton two of four?
The statistics suggest it might prove very important indeed...
EARLY WOES
The notion of Swansea City’s home form being a shining beacon in the battle for survival appeared a highly -unlikely prospect for anyone who took in a Liberty Stadium fixture over the first half of the season.
Wretched results and performances, amidst a difficult and occasionally toxic atmosphere, created a situation where Swansea tended to look more comfortable playing away from home.
During this period, the Swans picked up just eight points from their first 10 league games at the Liberty.
Meanwhile, Stoke and Saints piled up 14 and 12 respectively.
The current picture would look very different had Swansea not managed to find a way to turn things around.
A BREATH OF FRESH AIR
Carvalhal lost his first home game in charge against Tottenham, but a positive, attacking second-half display hinted at what was to come.
It took a determined rearguard effort to subdue Liverpool, and a masterclass in counter-attacking saw off Arsenal.
The three home displays since have been imbued with an assertive quality, Swansea have taken the game to Burnley, West Ham and Everton and can count themselves unfortunate that the Toffees prevented them recording five straight Premier League home wins for the first time.
Swansea have been far more cautious and pragmatic away from home, picking up points in increments of one rather than three. It has been results at the Liberty driving this recovery.
Consider this, Swansea have taken 13 points from six in their own back yard since the turn of the year.
Southampton have just four from seven, Stoke a meagre six from eight. Swansea’s home points deficit has been overhauled and built into what could prove to be a telling advantage. Swansea have scored 10 goals and conceded just five under Carvalhal at the Liberty, prior to that it was scored seven and conceded 16.
They are averaging 2.16 points per game at home since the start of 2018, prior to that point it was 0.8.
Over 2018, Stoke’s points-per-game average at home is 0.75, Southampton’s is just 0.57.
THE MANAGER’S VERDICT ON HIS SIDE’S “DIFFERENT FACE”
“When we arrived, we were five points adrift of safety, now we are four in advance,” Carvalhal said when asked of the significance of his side’s three remaining home games.
“So, it means in three months we have made up nine points on other teams. It’s amazing.
“If you asked me when I arrived, nobody would believe that we could achieve that.
“We lost games against Manchester United, Manchester City, Tottenham and Brighton – in the other games we are winning points.
“Now we have four games to play – some clubs that are near us only have three.
“They are not easy games, but we play the Chelsea game at the Liberty. In the Liberty Stadium we have another face, this is the reality.
“After we go to Bournemouth, then we receive Southampton and Stoke. It means we have everything in our hands.
“We know where we are, we know what we have done so far and we know exactly what we can do in the coming weeks”
If they keep doing what they have been at the Liberty in recent months, they will have another season of Premier League football to look forward to.