Show must go on amid upheaval of party politics
The political landscape in Wales is undergoing unprecedented change, with Labour, Conservative, Plaid Cymru and Ukip leadership contests all under way.
The political context has implications for the Welsh Government, with the new Welsh Labour leader likely to become First Minister. Carwyn Jones shocked many when he announced in April that he would be stepping down from both roles by the end of 2018.
Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford was first out of the gate declaring his intention to run to replace Mr Jones. Baroness Eluned Morgan (Minister for Welsh Language and Lifelong Learning), Huw IrrancaDavies (Minister for Children, Older People and Social Care) and Vaughan Gething (Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Services) followed soon after. While Mr Drakeford is the only politician to have secured the requisite number of nominations, a special conference in September will determine the rules of the contest. The victor is expected to be announced in early December.
For the Welsh Conservatives, the nomination to replace Andrew RT Davies closed Monday, with two names – Paul Davies and Suzy Davies – going forward to party members. A postal vote will take place in August, with a result declared on September 6.
Plaid Cymru allows for a leadership contest every two years and Leanne Wood has welcomed an open competition. Rhun ap Iorwerth (Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Health, Wellbeing and Sport) and Adam Price (Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Infrastructure) have both said they would run against Ms Wood. Plaid is expected to announce its new leader on September 29.
Finally, Neil Hamilton was recently ousted as Ukip leader in the Assembly. There is now a contest to elect a new Welsh leader, with Caroline Jones, Neil Hamilton and Gareth Bennett due to be on the member ballot. The results will be announced around mid-August
So what does this all mean for business? It has been some time since all parties had a change at the top and there is likely to be a knockon effect.
The most important message for politicians in Cardiff Bay is “the show must go on”. Given the broader context – from Brexit negotiations to systemic changes in the economy – Wales cannot afford a protracted period of introspection and readjustment as political parties turn their focus inward.
With a critical UK-EU summit expected in October, the Welsh Government must continue to operate and deliver strong leadership until the last possible moment. Today’s publication of an ambitious legislative programme is a positive sign that momentum is being maintained. We need to see that decisiveness extended to other major decisions on the horizon – from a green light for the M4 Black Route to a firm commitment to an ambitious North Wales Growth Deal. Delaying such decisions until a new political leader takes over would be a retrograde step.
While it is up to the politicians to determine who is elected, business has a voice – even though it doesn’t have a vote. Business needs political leaders of experience and vision, able to harness the talents of their respective parties and give them direction and drive. Lurches in political direction inevitably come with a period of uncertainty – this would not be welcome at such a critical economic juncture.
More broadly, we would welcome a fresh pair of eyes on the strategic challenges Wales faces – from maximising the potential of public service as anchors of local economies to ensuring all government departments are measured on how they drive economic growth. The process for electing the new party leaders should be accompanied by a debate on the direction of each party while remembering that all AMs were elected on manifestos that run until 2021. A balance between change and stability needs to be struck.
From April 2019 Wales will be responsible for collecting its own income tax. For the first time a sizeable chunk of the Welsh Government’s budget will be directly affected by the strength of the economy which, in turn, is affected by the decisions all Welsh Government ministers take. We should treat this greater reach into the pockets of Welsh citizens responsibly, as an opportunity to broaden the range of voices in often elitist deliberations. It will not be sufficient to make a case for devolved policy innovation if it imposes more burdens on Welsh citizens. The political class will have to win the war of ideas and not simply impose an idea from Cardiff Bay. That shift from a deep but narrow form of engagement to a wider and more meaningful dialogue with the people of Wales will be the challenge all future party leaders face. Let’s hope they can rise to it.