Laying out the road map which will lead Wales to independence
Plaid Cymru AM Adam Price has formally launched his leadership bid for the party. Here, he outlines his vision of how an independent Wales could be achieved by 2030
WELSH independence is the biggest, most transformational, most radical idea in Welsh politics.
But there is no short cut. We must start urgently charting the nationbuilding process that will deliver independence by the end of the next decade.
Vague policies, soundbites and tired slogans will get us nowhere.
Anyone who seeks to lead the national movement must set out a clear and credible plan on how to achieve our ultimate goal.
The Party of Wales needs to be the government of Wales from 2021 on. That is the essential first step on our pathway to independence.
So picture this reimagined Wales. A Plaid Cymru government passes a Wales 2030 Act giving the Welsh people a guaranteed vote on selfdetermination by the end of the decade. A National Commission oversees the 2030 process, giving Welsh citizens a say in what an independent Wales will look like.
In the run-up to the referendum itself, we adopt an independence mindset, by pushing the boundaries of the possible.
We act as if we are already independent. We enthuse our young people with a sense of excitement and possibility and draw upon our rich sense of community to transform the care of our elderly.
We show those in work and in business the deepening contrast between the economic failings of a dismal and unequal Britain and a thriving Nordic-style Welsh economy.
Independence may be our destiny, but achieving it will be based on the visible and concrete changes we’ve made to people’s lives in Wales.
Becoming the new natural party of government by getting re-elected in 2026 will be the ultimate symbol of a new national self-confidence – but we will only achieve that by being radical and effective.
That’s why our First Minister needs to be a political entrepreneur.
Opponents of independence constantly claim we are too poor or too small for independence. This myth must be turned on its head.
We are relatively poor (within the UK) because we are not independent. We can point to plenty of small, independent countries that are economically successful, but must also demonstrate that independence would not have major negative consequences.
Most advanced countries run a fiscal deficit, so an independent Wales would not be expected to balance its books. However, the deficit would need to be sustainable, so as not to disrupt public services or welfare payments like pensions.
In 2016-17 Wales had a negative net fiscal balance of £13bn, or over 20% of Welsh GDP. But that does not represent the true position of an independent Wales.
By lowering defence expenditure, netting off the Welsh share of UK government assets against liabilities and agreeing a fairer apportionment of accrued pension rights – building on work already done in the case of Scotland – we can arrive at a projected deficit for a nominally independent Wales of just over 12% of GDP by 2021. This is double the 6% starting point target for independence proposed by the Scottish Government.
Halving the deficit over the course of the decade would mean that by 2030 our fiscal gap would be sustainable, and we’ll have proven that Wales is not too small to stand on its own two feet.
Achieving this means improving Wales’ to-date disappointing economic performance.
We’ll need to raise real-terms Welsh economic growth to 2.8% in real terms over nine years. This is challenging, but not impossible.
There have been more than 80 instances of “economic upswing” in modern economic history.
Ireland, for instance, doubled its GDP between 1987-2002.
We’ll implement a National Economic Strategy that will improve the lives of our people and make independence an attractive and realistic option.
The last step we need to take is crucial. The most persuasive arguments are in vain if they cannot be heard. As the London-owned media ignore Wales, we have to create our own. The National Commission will have the mandate to create the strong and diverse Welsh media crucial to a debate on our future.
Independence is the reason I joined Plaid Cymru 36 years ago.
I’ve consistently maintained that achieving an independent Wales should be our declared intention – and sooner, not later.
In 1993, as a 23-year-old director of policy, I drafted the constitution of an independent Wales – which the party duly adopted.
I’ve never wavered from that dream in the quarter of a century since. But now it’s time to turn all our declarations of intent into a much more durable declaration – independence itself.
■ Adam Price is the AM for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr