Western Mail

Divisions deepen as Brexit vote looms

Tomorrow is a landmark day in both the Brexit saga and Theresa May’s career as Prime Minister. Ministers are scrambling to try to avoid a humiliatin­g defeat when MPs hold their ‘meaningful vote’ on the Brexit deal. The result will either secure the UK’s d

- DAVID HUGHES Press Associatio­n newsdesk@walesonlin­e.co.uk

ONE OF the most tumultuous political weeks in a generation begins today, with Theresa May battling for her beleaguere­d Brexit deal – and her own job.

The Prime Minister yesterday continued to come under fire from all directions, with figures at both ends of the political spectrum queuing up to criticise the deal, which is expected to go before Parliament tomorrow.

On an extraordin­ary day of protests, counter-protests and rallies, Mrs May battled to maintain her grip on power despite it now appearing almost certain that she will lose the vote in the Commons.

Ahead of the crunch vote:

■ Former Cabinet ministers including Boris Johnson refused to rule out leadership bids;

■ A serving minister conceded that Tory MPs could quit the party over the Brexit plan;

■ Labour said it would work with other Opposition parties to decide what to do if Mrs May crashes to defeat tomorrow and could form a minority government.

Mrs May sought to paint a picture of “grave uncertaint­y” in the event her deal with the EU is rejected, while Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay insisted there could be no further negotiatio­n over the terms of leaving the EU.

But Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn called for talks with the EU to be reopened, while Conservati­ve figures including Dominic Raab, Esther McVey and Mr Johnson hinted heavily they could stand against Mrs May for the Conservati­ve leadership.

THERESA MAY is battling to save her Brexit deal and maintain her grip on power ahead of tomorrow’s Commons showdown.

The Prime Minister warned Tory MPs they risk handing Jeremy Corbyn the keys to Number 10 unless they back her Brexit deal.

Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay insisted that the vote would still go ahead tomorrow amid speculatio­n Mrs May might be forced to delay the vote in a last-ditch effort to avoid defeat.

As criticism mounted, the Prime Minister warned Tory would-be rebels the country would be in “uncharted waters” if the deal is rejected.

“It would mean grave uncertaint­y for the nation, with a very real risk of no Brexit or leaving the European Union with no deal,” she told the Mail on Sunday.

“We have a leader of the Opposition who thinks of nothing but attempting to bring about a general election, no matter what the cost to the country.

“As someone who cares passionate­ly about my country and my party, I believe Jeremy Corbyn getting his hands on power is a risk we cannot afford to take.”

Mr Corbyn told ITV News the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal was “ridiculous”, adding: “It’s going to be defeated, I hope, on Tuesday.

“At that point they’ve got to go back, negotiate something that is acceptable, which does protect rights and conditions, which does give us that trade access, or they’ve got to get out of the way, have an election so that it will be a government here that will be serious about those negotiatio­ns.”

And Plaid Cymru’s leader Adam Price, speaking at the People’s Vote and Best for Britain rally in east London, described the Brexit debate as a “parliament­ary tug-of-war, perched on the edge of a precipice”.

“Mrs May wants us to abseil to a ledge halfway down where we will spend the next 10 years in a sleeping bag tethered to the cliff face,” he said.

“Others want us to recreate Boris Johnson’s famous zipwire moment, but this time without the helmet, without the harness, even without the zipwire – just two plastic Union Jacks fluttering in our hands as we plummet.”

Reports suggested Mrs May could make an emergency trip to Brussels ahead of a planned summit on Thursday in an effort to secure further concession­s in an effort to win over critics of her plan.

The Prime Minister spoke to European Council president Donald Tusk yesterday, although Downing Street insisted it was a routine call ahead of the summit.

He said it would be a “an important week for the fate of Brexit”.

Tory MP Will Quince quit as a ministeria­l aide to Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson, while the Sunday Telegraph reported that another parliament­ary private secretary was on the verge of quitting and Cabinet Brexiteer Penny Mordaunt was considerin­g whether to back the deal or resign.

She has not backed Mrs May’s deal yet but has said she supports the Prime Minister.

Meanwhile Defence Minister Tobias Ellwood said he would back the deal – but indicated that unless it was passed quickly he might support a second referendum because the original decision to Leave may “no longer represent a reflection of current intent”.

Other ministers – including Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd – have suggested that a Norway-plus deal keeping the UK in the Single Market and a customs union could be a “plausible” alternativ­e if Mrs May’s plan is rejected.

Any defeat would lead to fresh questions about Mrs May’s political future.

Former work and pensions secretary Esther McVey said she would give the prospect of standing as leader “serious concern” and suggested that Brexiteers should unite around a single candidate.

Mr Johnson pointedly refused to

rule out challengin­g Mrs May, although he insisted it was “nonsense” to suggest he was already lining up members of his Cabinet.

Asked to give an “absolute, categorica­l promise” that he would not stand against the Prime Minister, Mr Johnson told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show: “I will give you an absolute, categorica­l promise that I will continue to advocate what I think is the most sensible plan.”

Former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab told Sky News’ Sophy Ridge On Sunday “I’ve always said I wouldn’t rule it out” but “it would be very selfindulg­ent to be engaging in all that speculatio­n when we’ve got such a big issue up for decision on Tuesday”.

Brexit minister Kwasi Kwarteng rejected the prospect of a full schism – although he acknowledg­ed some MPs may quit the party.

“I think one or two people might leave, I don’t know who they will be,” he told BBC Radio 5 Live’s Pienaar’s Politics.

“They might decide to retire or they might decide to abandon the party whip, that has happened before.”

Responding to speculatio­n that Mrs May could delay tomorrow’s vote in an effort to secure fresh concession­s from Brussels or win over wavering MPs, Brexit Secretary Mr Barclay insisted it would go ahead as

planned.

He told the Andrew Marr Show: “We’ve got the vote on Tuesday. There’s still two full days of debate.”

Asked if the vote was “100% happening” on Tuesday, he replied: “It is.”

Labour is considerin­g its options if Mrs May is defeated and would hold talks with other opposition parties about how to proceed.

The party wants a general election but Shadow Cabinet Office minister

Jon Trickett said Mr Corbyn would be prepared to lead a minority government this week.

Mr Trickett told Sky: “Our preferred option, very, very strongly, is that we refresh the Parliament though we are ready to form a minority government should that be necessary – and it could happen on Wednesday morning.”

1. What is the vote?

This is the vote to approve the Withdrawal Agreement that the UK Government has negotiated with the European Union.

The PM argues that if this agreement is not approved the country could crash out of the EU on March 29 without a deal. The Bank of England and the Government’s own experts have warned of serious consequenc­es for the economy if this happens.

If the Withdrawal Agreement is approved, the UK would enter a transition period on March 29 and our relationsh­ip with the EU would continue very much as today until the end of 2020. During that time the UK and the EU would seek to negotiate a long-term relationsh­ip. This is highly ambitious as the EU’s trade deal with Canada took seven years to negotiate, which is one reason why the Withdrawal Agreement allows for the transition period to be extended.

2. When is the “meaningful vote” happening?

The vote is due to take place tomorrow.

If it looks as if Mrs May is heading for an overwhelmi­ng defeat, there is the possibilit­y the Government will decide not to put it to a vote. It is claimed several cabinet ministers, including Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns, have urged her to call off the vote if she is facing defeat by more than 70. If it does go ahead, voting is expected to take place around 7pm.

3. What happens if the Government loses the vote?

If the vote is lost, Mrs May, her party, Parliament, the economy and the country will be plunged into profound uncertaint­y – various scenarios are explored below – and the Government will be required to make a statement by January 1 on how it plans to proceed with withdrawal negotiatio­ns.

MPs will debate that statement within seven days of it being made, and this is the moment when they will try to issue their own instructio­ns to the Government.

We can expect MPs to put down amendments to trigger a new referendum and radically different approaches to Brexit.

4. Will Theresa May have to resign if it is lost?

Not necessaril­y. In normal times, if a PM suffered an uber-rebellion in her own ranks and lost by 100-plus votes on the biggest issue of her premiershi­p, this would be the moment when cameras would be called to Downing Street to record her resignatio­n statement.

But even Mrs May’s critics are impressed by her legendary resilience. She may argue this is no time for a leadership contest, that nobody else could sort out the mess, and the last thing the country needs is for the captain to abandon ship when the threat of a no-deal Brexit looms.

Unhappy Tory MPs could try to trigger a leadership contest by submitting 48 letters calling for a confidence vote to the chairman of the backbench 1922 committee.

Alternativ­ely, her own cabinet could – in a scene reminiscen­t of the fall of Margaret Thatcher – one by one tell her it is time to go. If moderate Tories united around an agreed successor, Mrs May could conclude she had done her best to fulfil her duty as Prime Minister and request the removal van to come to No 10.

5. Will defeat lead to a general election?

This is what Jeremy Corbyn’s team

would love to happen. Senior Labour figures argue they would have won the 2017 election if the campaign had gone on just a little longer and now see an opportunit­y to oust the Conservati­ves from power.

However, another election is not due until 2022 and there cannot be an early contest unless (a) two-thirds of MPs vote for one or (b) the Commons passes a no confidence motion and there is still no viable government after 14 days.

The PM’s decision to go for a snap election in 2017 was a disaster for her party, so there would be great resistance in Tory ranks to any election that could lead to a Labour victory, especially while Mrs May is at the helm.

There has been speculatio­n Mrs May could take the colossal gamble of going for an election in which she would ask the country to back the deal. However, this could lead to a schism in Tory ranks, with archBrexit­eers refusing to stand on a manifesto that backed her deal, thus splitting the Conservati­ve vote.

6. Will there be a second referendum if the Government loses the vote? There are loud supporters of a “people’s vote” but it is by no means certain that this would be a consequenc­e of Mrs May’s deal being voted down.

The PM has repeatedly stamped on the idea of a second referendum, although Downing Street also ruled out a snap election before sending the country to the polls in 2017.

A public endorsemen­t of Mrs May’s deal could overcome deadlock in Parliament, but there would be an almighty row over what options should be on the ballot paper.

Hardcore Brexiteers would want a no-deal exit to be an option; other MPs would want to give voters the chance to back a Norwegian-style scenario in which the country technicall­y leaves the EU but remains in the Single Market; Mrs May would obviously want her deal to be included; and Remainers would be outraged if they cannot vote to stay in the EU on present terms.

There would be intense opposition in Parliament to a second referendum, and not just in Tory ranks. Many MPs are wary of being seen to overturn the will of the people, and Len McCluskey, the general secretary of the powerful Labour-supporting Unite union, has argued against a referendum.

MPs could attempt to legislate for a public vote when the Government, as required, makes its statement on future plans after losing the meaningful vote, but it is unclear whether such a bid would command majority support.

A key question is whether a referendum could be held before March 29, the day the UK will exit the EU.

If legal and practical reasons make this impossible, then the UK would have to ask the EU to suspend the Brexit process – and this would trigger accusation­s by Brexiteers that a europhile political class is betraying the 51.9% of the population who voted to leave.

7. If the deal is defeated tomorrow, can Theresa May put it to MPs again? Traditiona­lly, asking MPs to vote a second time on something they have just rejected is frowned upon but – if the Commons is content to be asked its opinion again – the PM could have another go.

In fact, it is suggested that this could be a part of Downing Street’s strategy.

If the value of the pound crashes in the wake of a rejection of the deal and there is turmoil on the markets, this could change the political climate. Government whips will tell MPs that they have a duty to restore stability and stop job losses by eliminatin­g the threat of a no-deal exit and voting for the deal.

8. Could Theresa May renegotiat­e the deal if is rejected tomorrow? Helpfully, an EU summit will take place on Thursday and Friday.

Mrs May could turn up in Brussels and plead for a concession she can take back to Parliament. She can tell her EU counterpar­ts this is their last chance to prevent a no-deal Brexit which would damage their own economies.

It would be hard to secure a significan­t change to the 585-page Withdrawal Agreement (particular­ly on the fiercely controvers­ial “backstop” proposals to avoid a hard border in Ireland), but EU leaders might offer to insert some words in the political statement – the non-binding document which will be the starting-point for negotiatio­ns on the long-term treaty – to try to mollify Brexiteers.

Labour hopes to conduct a fullscale renegotiat­ion of the Withdrawal Agreement if the Government falls and it takes power.

If it is unlikely that a tweaked deal stands any chance of getting the backing of MPs, pro- and anti-EU cabinet ministers may press Mrs May to abandon the Withdrawal Agreement and take a radically different approach.

If the EU is unwilling to rework the backstop – which would see the UK remain in a customs union with the EU but Northern Irish trade with Great Britain subject to special checks – Brexiteer ministers may say it is time to prepare in earnest for a managed exit without a deal.

This would involve beefing up port capacity to prevent shortages of medicine, food and industrial components, and working with EU states to mitigate mutual damage.

Meanwhile, pro-EU ministers may say it’s time to reach for the “Norway-plus” option, which would see the UK officially leave the union but remain part of its Single Market and a customs union.

This would mean free movement would not end (though the UK could potentiall­y apply restrictio­ns in certain situations). Ardent Brexiteers would be dismayed, but supporters could argue this is vastly preferable to being stuck in the backstop, and this would allow the UK to leave the Common Agricultur­al Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy.

9. What happens if the Government wins the meaningful vote? Theresa May will open a very large bottle of champagne and she will be acclaimed as one of the master tacticians of British political history.

This would clear the way for the UK to leave the EU under the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement she has negotiated. But it would not mean the end of Brexit struggles.

Parliament would have to put the agreement into UK law. MPs on different sides of the Brexit divide would make last-ditch attempts to amend the legislatio­n – such as trying to insert a requiremen­t for a referendum.

The European Parliament would also have to vote on the deal, and is not expected to do so until March.

This would not mean the end of negotiatio­ns with Brussels, either. Diplomats and civil servants would fling themselves into the epic challenge of trying to get all 27 member states to agree a new long-term treaty between the UK and the EU.

The Brexit story is far from finished.

IN LITTLE more than three months’ time, the UK is scheduled to give up its membership of the European Union.

Yet the circumstan­ces under which such a departure will take place – and even whether it will actually happen – remain up in the air.

Tomorrow MPs are due to vote on whether to accept the halfbaked deal that has been cobbled together between Theresa May, Michel Barnier and their respective negotiatin­g teams. It’s halfbaked because there is no clarity about the future trading arrangemen­ts that will exist between the UK and the EU after the designated transition­al period.

Nobody, presumably including Mrs May, believes that the deal will be approved by either the House of Commons or the House of Lords.

The unanswered question is what happens next.

When asked, the Prime Minister pretends that she still holds out hope that the deal will be passed. The alternativ­es, she suggests, are no deal or no Brexit.

The levels of brinkmansh­ip and short-termism involved in the scenario we find ourselves in are breathtaki­ngly disturbing.

Our politician­s are discussing a game-changing political event that will have an impact for generation­s on our economy, our prosperity and the life chances of those who will succeed us.

Yet most MPs give the impression of thinking not about the national interest, as they should be, but of party interest or even factional interest within their party.

In doing so, they are abnegating the historic responsibi­lity that has been laid upon them.

It has been clear for some time that no potential resolution of this state of affairs will be able to command majority support in the Commons.

Even if by some miracle a formula were found that satisfied a majority of MPs, it is highly unlikely that such an alternativ­e proposal would be acceptable to the EU.

The politician­s involved in deciding the way ahead should have their eye on the long term, not on short-term advantage that is likely to evaporate very quickly if things go wrong. We can’t afford to play games that may lead to the shortages of food and medicines, whatever former Tory Cabinet Ministers might think.

If MPs cannot agree on a sensible way forward – and there is little evidence of that at present – the case for a further referendum will become irrefutabl­e.

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Steve Parsons > Prime Minister Theresa May manages a smile after attending a church service near her Maidenhead constituen­cy yesterday
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