‘PM will lose vote and Government will move back leaving date’ MPs should take control – SNP leader

BRITAIN is unlikely to leave the European Union on March 29, the Economist Intelligence Unit has predicted.

The forecasting group said it expects the Prime Minister will lose the critical “meaningful vote” on her Brexit deal tomorrow, and the Government will then be forced to request an extension to Article 50.

The EIU believes Brussels will agree to an extension, meaning Britain will remain in the trade bloc beyond the planned exit date.

Crashing out of the EU without a deal is the least likely outcome, according to the forecast, which put the probability of a no-deal exit at 5%.

Instead, the EIU said there was a 40% chance Mrs May’s deal would eventually be approved by Parliament in a subsequent vote, after gaining further assurances from Brussels. And it predicted a 30% probability of a second referendum being called to break the political deadlock.

Danielle Haralambous, UK analyst at the EIU, said: “Time is simply running out, and we’re at a stage where Brexit can probably only happen in late March now in the unlikely event that Parliament approves Mrs May’s deal on January 15, or if Parliament supports leaving without a deal.

“For all other options, the Government will need to buy more time, and we think the EU will be willing to provide it to avoid a cliff-edge situation.

“Mrs May and her Government are not prepared to run down the Article 50 clock and leave the EU without a withdrawal agreement and transition arrangements in place, although this remains a possible Brexit outcome later in 2019.”

She added: “However, delaying Brexit does not remove the downside risks to the process. With the time it has bought, the Government can pursue a new plan, but it will still be working towards a deadline to resolve the same deep political divisions over what Brexit should look like.

“In our view, the longer this political deadlock lasts, the higher the probability of a second referendum

MPS must take control of the House of Commons and ensure that a nodeal Brexit is avoided, the SNP’s Westminister leader has said.

Politicians are due to vote on the Brexit deal proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May at Westminster on Tuesday.

Speaking on the BBC’s Sunday Politics programme, Ian Blackford said Mrs May should not portray her deal as being the only route to avoiding leaving the European Union without a deal in place

Mr Blackford said: “I think everyone now knows that there is no such thing as a ‘good Brexit’, there’s no such thing as a ‘jobs-first Brexit’, as some have claimed.

“Under any scenario, people are going to be poorer, people are going to lose their jobs.

“As politicians, we’ve got a responsibility to have a conversation with everybody that we now know that Brexit is going to be painful.

“I would like the House of Commons now to take control because the Prime Minister has failed to give leadership.

“The Prime Minister’s got to stop threatening Parliament and indeed, threatening the whole of the United Kingdom, that it’s a choice between her deal and no deal - that’s not the case.”