» Date for crucial by-election:
VOTERS IN Newport West will go to the polls on April 4 in a byelection that will not only find a successor to the Labour stalwart Paul Flynn, but draw attention from Wales and beyond as a tester for the impact the chaos at Westminster and in the Labour Party has had on the status quo.
Usually, a party will not ask for a byelection date until after a funeral, but in this case Labour has gone against that by asking Parliament for the date in April.
The eyes of political commentators will turn to Wales for the by-election, partly as there have been few by-elections since the 2017 General Election to see if the changing political landscape is echoed at the ballot box.
It’s also the first by-election since 11 MPs from Labour and the Conservatives quit their parties and formed a new group, however, it is not clear if they will field a candidate.
The only two other by-elections since 2017 were Lewisham East, which was held by Labour after the resignation of Heidi Alexander, and West Tyrone held by Sinn Fein after the resignation of Barry McElduff.
Newport West is a historically safe Labour seat, but the political climate is anything but stable.
Since the last poll – the snap election in June 2017 – Brexit has continued to dominate the headlines, but Labour has faced its own challenges under Jeremy Corbyn. And, in Wales, there is a new man at the helm, Mark Drakeford.
The by-election is the first chance for the electorate to have their say. So what do the experts think could happen?
Professor Roger Awan-Scully is head of politics and international relations at Cardiff University.
“There was a 13% majority for Labour in 2017 and in what would be classed as normal political circumstances that would be a very considerable defence, but in all sorts of ways, these are not normal political circumstances.
“What may disturb that is the ongoing maelstrom that is current politics. If there’s a no-deal Brexit, and chaos surrounding that, clearly that’s going to be bad for a Conservative candidate.
“A great deal depends on the next few weeks with regards to defections and Brexit.
“We should know within the next few weeks whether any sort of version of Theresa May’s deal is alive or whether the trickle of defections is becoming anything more than that.
“If there are no more defections from the leading parties, and Labour doesn’t implicate itself in some disastrous Brexit, then it should be their seat.”
So who is standing? As Mr Flynn had already said he would not seek re-election, parties had been selecting candidates before his death.
Labour’s candidate is Ruth Jones, a former president of the Wales Trade Union Congress.
The Conservatives have selected Councillor Matthew Evans.
Plaid Cymru’s candidate is Jonathan Clark, while Amelia Womack will stand for the Green Party.
The Abolish the Assembly Party has announced that it will be fielding its chairman as a candidate. Richard Suchorzewski, 55, is previously a chairman of Ukip in Wales.
It is not yet known if the Independent Group – a combination of Labour and Conservative MPs who quit their parties this month – will put up a candidate.
Newport West has been a Labour seat since 1987 – represented throughout all that time by Paul Flynn.
The most recent general election was in 2017, and in that Labour took 52.3% of the vote, 13% higher than the second-placed candidate, Tory Angela Jones-Evans.