Remainers running out of time as Brexit deadline draws closer
Chief reporter MARTIN SHIPTON senses nervousness among Remain-supporting Welsh MPs as time runs down towards the latest Article 50 deadline, with a no-deal Brexit advocated by Boris Johnson looming large
AWEEK is a long time in politics, as Harold Wilson once said. But it’s equally true that three months can be a very short time – in politics as much as anything else.
It’s little more than three months until October 31, when according to the most recent agreement, the UK is meant to be out of the EU.
We’ve already had more than half of the Article 50 extension we secured in March, at a time when it looked possible that the Conservatives and Labour could reach a deal that would see a variation on the withdrawal agreement negotiated by Theresa May pass through the House of Commons.
Since then, anything that resembles a compromise seems to have been jettisoned.
Boris Johnson, who everyone safely assumes will be elected the new Tory leader next week, has promised
his party members that Brexit will be delivered by the end of October without fail.
For everyone concerned, the stakes are getting bigger.
Earlier this week, Remain-backing MPs from Wales were displaying signs of nervousness as they talked in Westminster.
They didn’t want to be quoted by name, but they felt the momentum had gone from the campaign for a People’s Vote and seemed spooked by Boris Johnson’s threat to prorogue Parliament to achieve a no-deal Brexit.
While they didn’t doubt that there was a parliamentary majority against no-deal, the mechanism for stopping it was not so clear. Their spirits have risen since Thursday, when an amendment was passed that obliges the UK Government to report regularly on its efforts to restore devolution in Northern Ireland – effectively a measure to stop the proroguing of Parliament.
But their central aim of stopping a no-deal Brexit has not, in essence, advanced at all.
Cardiff barrister David Hughes, a leading supporter of the Wales in Europe campaign who resigned from the Conservative Party over the issue, said passing resolutions at Westminster was all very well, but there was only one way for MPs to ensure that a no-deal Brexit does not take place: “They can pass legislation to revoke Article 50, although so far not many MPs have shown an appetite for that.
“Otherwise, anything they do is dependent on the goodwill of the EU.
“If Parliament passed legislation for another referendum, the EU would be likely to grant an extension beyond October 31. The same applies if a general election is called.
“But passing resolutions that seek to block a no-deal has no legal validity and the default position is that we live the EU without a deal on October 31.”
Plaid Cymru MP Jonathan Edwards believes that ultimately it will come down to a choice between no-deal and revoking Article 50, with the latter option linked to a new referendum or a general election.
He said: “The EU has made it clear that it will not renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement with a new Prime Minister at Westminster. That’s why the rhetoric of Boris Johnson has become more and more focused on no-deal.
“As the starkness of the choice between no-deal and revocation becomes apparent, MPs from all parties will have to examine their consciences and decide which of the two options is preferable.
“The hope is that Labour and enough Tory rebels come to the conclusion that no-deal would be so catastrophic for our economy that it can’t be allowed to happen.
“It’s unlikely this will be resolved immediately after Boris Johnson takes office.”