New PM urged to ditch ‘catastrophic’ no deal
TWO Welsh Government ministers today warn that a “catastrophic no-deal Brexit” would endanger jobs, investment and livelihoods in Wales and destroy the Welsh farming industry.
Speaking on the second day of the Royal Welsh Show, International Relations Minister Eluned Morgan and Brexit Minister Jeremy Miles demanded that whoever is named as the new Conservative leader today should rule out no deal.
The pair said the farming sector has well-established export links to EU countries, exporting significant amounts of Welsh produce, and would be impacted by tariffs should the UK leave without a deal.
They argued that a no-deal Brexit could lead to a reduction in the size of the economy of between 8% to 10% over the long run, the equivalent of between £1,500 and £2,000
per head.
Export taxes imposed on Welsh lamb and beef exports could include tariffs as high as 84% on cattle carcasses, 46% on lamb and 61% on cuts of lamb.
New regulatory barriers for Welsh businesses could be hugely damaging for many Welsh businesses, especially those in the food sector, but also in aerospace and the automotive sectors – all vital to the Welsh economy.
Changes to customs rules which add to costs, time, inconvenience and regulation could have a damaging impact on the economy of Wales.
Delays at Welsh and other UK ports were likely as new barriers and checks were put in place.
Mr Miles said: “Later today, we’ll discover who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK.
“Whoever wins, we know they have threatened to tear the UK out of the EU without a deal, mainly to please their own party rather than putting the interests of the country first.
“hT ose hell bent on a no-deal Brexit need to hear the clear message from Wales today – this would hit Wales hard, inflicting catastrophic damage on our country and economy.
“hT is cannot be allowed to happen – we won’t stand by and allow sustained growth in Welsh farming and food to be derailed by the reckless actions of a few. Today we’re calling on the new Prime Minister to rule no deal out.”
Baroness Morgan said: “I have spoken to many businesses who have told me they want to invest and create jobs in Wales but are put off because of the never-ending Brexit uncertainly. We need that certainty – and we need it now.
“hT ose who advocated the UK leaving the EU said nothing would change. But we now know that a nodeal Brexit would change everything and not for the better.
“No one who voted for Brexit voted to make the nation poorer.
“People were promised a fantasy. hT e new Prime Minister knows that fantasy is in fact a nightmare that’s staring down on us.
“hT at’s why we need a new Brexit vote and we will continue to advocate Wales remaining in the EU.”
Reacting to the two Ministers’ statements, NFU Cymru President John Davies said: “Europe is our key and essential trading partner, with over 70% of Wales’ food and drink exports destined for this vital market, including around 40% of Wales’ lamb production.
“It is absolutely clear that a nodeal scenario will be catastrophic for Welsh, and indeed British, agriculture.
“A scenario where Welsh farmers have to operate under the no-deal default of World Trade Organisation tariffs will have devastating effects and will severely threaten the livelihoods and business of Welsh farmers.
“hT e economic damage, as well as the associated social and cultural impacts, are extremely worrying.
“It is crucial therefore that UK Government does all in its power to avoid this disruption and ensure we are able to continue to have free and frictionless trade with the EU.”
hT e “disastrous” impacts of a nodeal Brexit were also discussed during a meeting between the Farmers’ Union of Wales and Agriculture Secretary Michael Gove and Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns.
FUW President Glyn Davies told the two men that no responsible UK Government or Parliament would allow the UK to leave the EU without a deal.
He said: “We have been relentless in highlighting the grave economic impacts for agriculture, rural communities and other industries of a hard Brexit, and our concerns regarding the rhetoric of both of the prime ministerial candidates was made clear to both Secretaries of State.
“hT e latest analysis by Hybu Cig Cymru suggesting 92.5% of our lamb export trade could disappear if we go over the Brexit cliff on October 31 highlights our concerns.”
Mr Roberts also highlighted the FUW’s concerns that the tariff rates the UK Government intended to put in place for food imports were a fraction of the rates UK exporters would have to pay to send produce into the EU.
He added: “We also highlighted the fact that the proposal to use a WTO exemption more normally applied in extreme scenarios such as famines to allow produce to cross into the UK from the Republic of Ireland tariff-free raised the likelihood that Northern Ireland would become a tariff-free backdoor into the home market.
“Such lower or non-existent tariffs would be wholly unacceptable and add significantly to pressures on UK markets.”