‘Majority would vote for a united Ireland’
AN OPINION poll has suggested that a majority of people in Northern Ireland would vote in a referendum for the re-unification of Ireland.
The poll, financed by Tory peer Lord Ashcroft, shows the continuation of the UK is on a knife-edge, with 51% of voters backing a united Ireland, and 49% being against.
It comes 98 years after Ireland was partitioned, with six of the nine counties of Ulster splitting off to form a statelet with a unionist majority at the time home rule was granted by the British government to the 26 other Irish counties.
Since then the largely Protestant unionists have continued to outnumber the nationalists, who are predominantly Catholics.
Lord Ashcroft’s poll shows a substantial majority of both communities continue to hold their traditional views on the question of reuniting Ireland, but that overall there has been a shift towards reunification.
98% of nationalists were in favour of joining the Republic compared to 95% of unionists who wished to remain in the UK.
Results were further broken down into age groups, with only the 65+ demographic winning a majority in favour of staying within the UK.
62% of over-65s want Northern Ireland to stay in the UK, while 38% want to see a united Ireland.
Among those aged between 25 and 64, there is a majority of 51% to 49% for a united Ireland.
Those aged between 25 and 44 split 55% to 45% in favour of reunification, while for 18- to 24-year-olds those backing a united Ireland are ahead by 60% to 40%.
A further question asked voters whether it was more important for Northern Ireland to remain a part of either the EU or the UK, and the EU won out by an 11% difference: 55% to 44%.
Asked if they would rather leave the EU with a deal which includes the Northern Ireland backstop, guaranteeing no hard border, or leave the
EU with no deal, 60% wanted a deal with the backstop against 40% who would prefer the UK to leave the EU without a deal.
In response to a further question, 61% believed it was more important to keep the border between Ireland and the North completely invisible.
Releasing the poll results, Lord Ashcroft said: “This is in fact a statistical tie and well within the margin of error. Such a result might also reflect the uncertainty and anxiety surrounding Brexit, the Irish border and its potential effect on life in the province, which could recede when the outcome is settled.
“Be that as it may, the result underlines what could be at stake in the quest for a workable Brexit solution on the island of Ireland.”
The poll follows an earlier one, also from Lord Ashcroft, which showed a majority of Scottish voters in favour of independence.
Asked how they would vote in a referendum, 46% said they would vote Yes for independence against 43% who would vote No.
Excluding those who say they don’t know or wouldn’t vote, this amounts to a lead of 52% to 48% for an independent Scotland.
This is the first lead for independence in a published poll since an Ipsos Mori survey in March 2017, and the biggest lead since a spate of polls in June 2016, shortly after the UK voted to leave the EU.
One-third of Labour voters, a majority of EU Remain voters and 18% of those who voted No to independence at the last referendum in 2014 said they would vote Yes. Again, more than nine in 10 Tories said they would vote No, as did just over one in 10 of those who backed independence in 2014. A majority of voters up to the age of 49 said they would vote Yes, including 62% of those aged 18 to 24.
Meanwhile, putting further pressure on the survival of the UK, a YouGov poll has shown surging support for Welsh independence.
The Northern Ireland poll results came as the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) dismissed a report that it will offer Prime Minister Boris Johnson a lifeline to help him unlock a Brexit deal.
Reports yesterday said the DUP has agreed to shift its red lines on Brexit, saying it could accept Northern Ireland abiding by some European Union rules post-Brexit as part of a new deal to replace the Irish backstop.
The Times claimed the DUP, the biggest party in Northern Ireland, had also privately said it would drop its objection to regulatory checks in the Irish Sea, something it had previously said was unacceptable since it would separate Northern Ireland politically and economically from the mainland.
However, DUP leader Arlene Foster insisted that, as previously indicated, any moves which did make Northern Ireland different from the rest of the UK would be unaccepta
ble to the party.
“UK must leave as one nation. We are keen to see a sensible deal but not one that divides the internal market of the UK,” Mrs Foster tweeted.
“We will not support any arrangements that create a barrier to East West trade.”
She added: “Anonymous sources lead to nonsense stories.”
The DUP’s Brexit spokesman, Sammy Wilson, also rejected reports that the party was softening its stance, but said he had detected a different tone in talks between London and Dublin.
He said: “I think that there was a different attitude in the talks between the Prime Minister and the Taoiseach at the beginning of the week and there seemed to be less rhetoric at those discussions from what there had been in the past.
“And I suppose that’s progress.” Meanwhile, Mr Johnson has been warned against breaking the law over Brexit by Speaker John Bercow, who vowed that “creativity” in Parliament would scupper a no-deal exit.
The comments drew sharp criticism from prominent Tory Brexiteer Sir Bernard Jenkin, who said the Speaker had launched a personal attack on the Prime Minister.
Outgoing Commons Speaker Mr Bercow said in a London speech that the so-called Benn Act enforcing the extension means the only possible Brexit outcome is one approved by Parliament.
The former Tory warned that it is “astonishing” that anyone has entertained the idea that the PM could disobey the law, after Mr Johnson said he would rather be “dead in a ditch” than ask for a delay.
Mr Bercow compared refusing to ask for a delay in “what one might regard as the noble end” of Brexit to a bank robber insisting they would give their loot to charity.
If the government comes close to disobeying the Act, the Speaker said Parliament “would want to cut off such a possibility and do so forcefully”.
“If that demands additional procedural creativity in order to come to pass, it is a racing certainty that this will happen, and that neither the limitations of the existing rule book nor the ticking of the clock will stop it doing so,” he added.