‘For Mr Cairns and his colleagues, a no-deal Brexit is a negotiating chip in a political game...’
Chief reporter Martin Shipton takes a look at Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns’ role in the UK Government’s denials surrounding the Operation Yellowhammer document
IF YOU found the contents of the Operation Yellowhammer document disconcerting, don’t worry – Alun Cairns says everything will be all right.
It’s surely inconceivable that the Secretary of State for Wales would seek to play down the potential consequences of a no-deal Brexit.
Or is it?
The Yellowhammer document was produced not by a Remain campaign group or a think-tank with a negative take on Brexit.
It was released reluctantly by the Government of which Mr Cairns is a senior member, and is based on realistic assessments made by senior civil servants based on specialist advice.
The release was reluctant because MPs had voted for its disclosure when the Government refused to publish it.
It’s easy to understand why Mr Cairns and his colleagues wanted to keep the document secret. It portrays a dystopian Britain where fresh food is scarce, where prices are rising, where there is difficulty in getting medicines delivered, where lorries are stranded at ports for periods that run into days and where riots are prone to breaking out.
Which politician in their right mind would want to be associated with such a set of outcomes that are directly linked to a policy agenda they are pursuing?
Despite having backed Remain in the 2016 referendum, Mr Cairns quickly became converted to the merits of Leave.
When pundits pointed out the Vale of Glamorgan had voted Remain, he repeatedly made the point that the council area should not be confused with his constituency of the same name, indicating his pride at representing a majority of Leavers.
The council area included Penarth, while the constituency did not. Penarth voted overwhelmingly to Remain.
Mr Cairns backed Theresa May’s ill-fated deal, but voted to keep nodeal on the negotiating table, despite dire warnings about how damaging it would be for the Welsh economy.
Challenged about his position, he trotted out the party line that keeping no-deal on the table would force the EU to back down and offer the UK what Donald Trump would describe as “a really great deal”.
So far, that hasn’t happened – but Mr Cairns, Mr Johnson and the rest of the Cabinet may yet profit from playing a long game.
But it’s exceptionally difficult to imagine the EU backing down from its red lines.
Which will leave us with the appalling prospect of the no-deal scenario Operation Yellowhammer describes so graphically.
When asked by the BBC about Yellowhammer, Mr Cairns described it as a “moving dynamic”, whatever
that means.
With breathtaking nonchalance, he went on to say: “I’ve been in the Cabinet for more than three years, where I’ve seen so many copies of these sorts of scenarios.
“It is one position, a reasonable worse-case scenario if the Government didn’t react, and the reality is that the Government is reacting.”
He added: “We have taken positive steps. We are on track to make sure there is a smooth exit from the European Union – preferably with a deal – but if not, we can honour the demand which came from the Welsh public by leaving the European Union without a deal in a smooth way.”
Mr Cairns was pressed on the warning, in the original version of the document that was leaked to the Sunday Times, that major oil refineries could be forced to close under new trade terms planned in the event of no-deal.
Asked if the Valero oil refinery in Pembrokeshire was “safe”, he replied “yes” and when asked if it would close down, he replied “no”.
How can he be so sure?
It’s clear from his Government’s own document that very serious negative consequences are expected from no-deal. One such consequence could, it has been pointed out previously, involve the closure of two oil refineries.
In such uncertain times, and with such a self-inflicted shock to the economy well within the bounds of possibility, it seems perverse to dismiss the possibility out of hand.
Ultimately, the point is that Mr Cairns’ nonchalance reflects the kind of approach we have quickly come to expect from Boris Johnson’s administration.
It’s as if the prospect of a no-deal Brexit, with all that flows from it, is some kind of political game that exists as an end in itself, regardless of what actually happens and the impact it will have on the lives of ordinary people.
Yellowhammer itself warns it’s the most vulnerable who are likely to suffer most. Rising food prices will make the poorest members of society even poorer.
With low wages prevalent in Wales, there will be many working people whose lives would be impacted particularly negatively by a nodeal Brexit, as well as the unemployed, the disabled and retired people subsisting on the basic state pension. Job losses will occur, with further negative impacts for many more people.
It’s people’s livelihoods and, yes, lives that are at stake.
Yet for Mr Cairns and his colleagues, a no-deal Brexit is a negotiating chip in a political game where the winner is the side that manages to outmanoeuvre its opponents.
That they should take this approach is indicative of their political bankruptcy, where real consequences for real people are put to one side and the prospect of proving a point becomes all-consuming.
There was always a chance of that when those who had campaigned for Remain decided for the sake of their careers that they needed to make a 180-degree turn.
To do so, you need to put to one side any concerns you previously had about the impact of Brexit – and especially a no-deal Brexit – on people’s lives.
Instead, you adopt the mantra that the people spoke in the 2016 referendum and it would be a democratic outrage to thwart their instruction to quit the EU.
When people question your change of stance, you ignore the invitation to confirm Wales and the UK would be better off outside the EU, and repeat that the people deserve to get what they voted for.
In doing so, you can seek to absolve responsibility for the disastrous course you are now pursuing.
That’s exactly what Mr Cairns and the rest of the Cabinet are doing – and they deserve to be called out for it.
It might sometimes seem that all MPs involved in creating the Brexit deadlock are equally culpable, but that is not the case.
The truly culpable are those like Mr Cairns who have taken us on a journey that could result in a disastrous no-deal Brexit. To persist on such a course when one’s own advisers have warned of the appalling potential consequences is the height of political irresponsibility, and simply inexcusable.
Those MPs who have sacrificed their careers in order to block nodeal are the real heroes of the moment, vilified as they have been by Brexiteer fanatics.
They may be playing out the last months of their time in Parliament, but they were big enough to reject the bullying of Mr Johnson and his advisers and stand up for what they believe in.
What a contrast with Mr Cairns and his dismissive approach towards one of the most devastating reports ever produced about the consequences of a peacetime policy option.
When such a colossal proposal as leaving the EU is under consideration, leaders have a responsibility to be honest with people and give them the information they need to make considered choices.
If that doesn’t happen, how much of our democracy is left?