Vale MP will be hoping voters won’t be watching news

UNTIL a week ago, Alun Cairns would have been seen as almost a racing certainty to retain his seat at the General Election on December 12, but many will take the view that the unseemly nature of the circumstances that led to his resignation as the Secretary of State for Wales will have diminished his chances, writes Martin Shipton.

The Vale of Glamorgan is a mixed constituency which has changed hands in recent decades.

It contains largely working class Barry as well as the prosperous town of Cowbridge, Llantwit Major with its ancient core and a lot of good farming land.

Established as a new seat in 1983 at the height of Margaret Thatcher’s popularity, it elected Sir Raymond Gower that year with a majority of more than 10,000 for the Conservatives, reducing to around 6,200 in 1987.

Following Sir Raymond’s death, a by-election was won in 1989 by Labour’s John Smith with a majority of just over 6,000.

Three years later he lost it to Tory Walter Sweeney, who won by just 19 votes.

But Mr Smith came back in the Blair landslide of 1997, securing a majority of more than 10,500.

Labour held the seat for the next two elections, but it was captured by Mr Cairns in 2010 and he has held it since.

In 2017 the Tory majority was cut back to 2,190 – hardly safe, but comfortable enough for Mr Cairns in the light of current polling.

His ability to survive will depend not just on national swings, but on the degree to which the Ross England affair impacts on voting intention as well as whether the pro-Leave vote is split.

Nigel Farage has said that his Brexit Party will be fielding candidates in all 40 seats in Wales.

For Mr Cairns, that will be a worry.

Although the Vale of Glamorgan council area was one of only five out of 22 in Wales that voted Remain at the 2016 referendum, Mr Cairn’s constituency does not include Penarth, which had a strong Remain vote.

With the Brexit Party on the ballot paper, Leave voters uncomfortable with the Ross England affair do not have to put a cross against Mr Cairns’ name to express support for their cause.

The Unite to Remain pact has also not played well for the former Welsh Secretary. Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats are standing down, and the seat has been allocated to the Green Party.

The Greens have historically mustered little support in the Vale of Glamorgan: at the last election in 2017 they managed just 419 votes. Mr Cairns’ fear is that instead of voting for the Green Party, those who normally back Plaid and the Lib Dems will instead vote Labour.

What must not be ruled out, however, is the fact that many voters in the constituency simply won’t have heard of the Alun Cairns/ Ross England affair: they don’t follow Welsh news very assiduously and don’t participate in social media.

Mr Cairns will be hoping as few local people as possible hear about it in the coming weeks.