Brexit’s a gamble so let’s be cautious
IT’S inevitable that on the day the UK leaves the EU, politicians from all sides are telling us to look to the future.
From the point of view of those who back Brexit, the opportunity will soon exist to prove the “Remoaners” wrong and show how the UK can prosper outside the supposedly constricting embrace of the EU.
For those who argued the opposite case, there’s a realisation that continuing to rail against what has happened is a cul de sac, and that the best must be made of what they still believe to be a decidedly bad job. But rhetorical expressions of hope for the future are not enough.
What we have embarked on is not a TV gameshow of relevance only to itself, but a gamble of historic proportions whose outcome no-one can be sure of.
Many of us will share the sentiment expressed by First Minister Mark Drakeford that Wales must remain “open and outward facing”.
But as Mr Drakeford knows only too well, the degree to which a country can make a success of being open and outward-looking depends on how much freedom it has to function on such a basis.
Our biggest trading partner is the EU. Our ability to trade with its remaining 27 members could be severely hampered by a minimalist future trading arrangement of the kind Boris Johnson could end up with.
The Prime Minister has made it clear that he wants to move away from regulatory alignment with the EU in order to provide his government with greater flexibility to make deals elsewhere.
It is likely that our future fate will remain uncertain for several months. The next phase of negotiations with the EU is due to start in early March, by which time we may know more about the respective negotiating positions of both sides.
So while we applaud the positive sentiments expressed by Mr Drakeford, Secretary of State Simon Hart and ex-Tory Assembly leader Andrew RT Davies about aiming to achieve the best possible outcome for Wales, we think it wise to remain cautious about what the future holds.
International trading relations are complex and can be harmed by bureaucracy. Some say that was a good argument for staying inside Europe’s single market and customs union. Time will tell if anything better can be achieved.
For the moment, people on both sides of the Brexit debate should take stock and realise that the forthcoming second phase of negotiations will be crucial.