Welsh Labour could face a perfect storm
One of the lesser-interrogated subplots when the new Labour leader is finally elected – at least as far as the Londonbased media is concerned – will be the relationship the winner seeks with the devolved wings of the party in Wales and Scotland.
Discontent with various aspects of the party’s recent performance and conduct is hardly a novelty within Labour at the moment, but at yesterday’s hustings in Cardiff it was impossible to escape a sense that much of its Welsh membership is in a state of despair at the erosion of the ideological and organisational gap that once separated them from their English counterparts. As our report today notes, references from the four candidates to the importance of that clear red water were met not with joy, but relief. It’s clear that many in Welsh Labour believe the position of dominance that the party has enjoyed in these parts for generations is under greater threat than perhaps ever before, and there’s evidently little confidence that any kind of answer lies at a UK leadership level.
But what would it take to restore Labour’s traditional hegemony in Wales? Just a few days ago, a YouGov poll gave the Tories the largest share of the vote in Wales with a five-point lead over Labour. Anything like a repeat of that result in next year’s Assembly election would make the political map of Wales unrecognisable.
It’s the majority view in Welsh Labour that its profile here has been damaged by being too closely associated with Jeremy Corbyn, rather than being able to display a convincing level of autonomy. But the reality may be that Labour in Wales faces a perfect storm, abandoned by a core vote alienated by Corbynism and suffering from a generational gap of dynamic and recognisable leadership on a Welsh level. Whatever the state of the UK party, the hugely popular Rhodri Morgan literally defined the principle that Labour’s operations in Wales could and should be different. Carwyn Jones, while lacking the common touch of his predecessor, was able to continue the momentum on that front. By the time of Mark Drakeford’s appointment, he could rely on neither the force of his own personality nor the cooperation of Jeremy to enforce that delta.
That creates a two-pronged challenge that Labour must conquer if it is to regain its dominance – find an overall leader its Welsh vote can back, and a relationship with its Welsh leadership that works. Neither will be straightforward.