What 2020 will bring to travellers on Wales’ transport network
OVER the past year changes in Wales’ transport provision have been controversial (Welsh Government cancelling the new M4 around Newport), expectational (the new rail franchise) and international (the impact of Greta Thunberg and Extinction Rebellion demonstrations on how we view climate change).
We can expect many more changes in 2020.
Later this year the South East Wales Transport Commission will make recommendations to reduce congestion and CO2 levels in the capital region.
For many travellers the location of work and home necessitates car journeys; but I would expect the Commission to report on the merits of attractive and viable public transport/cycling capacity and choice for those travelling between and into major cities – Cardiff, Newport and Bristol – often providing shorter journey times.
These would play a significant role in alleviating congestion and giving high priority to CO2 emission reductions.
Easy multi-modal interchange between car/bus/rail with co-ordinated timetables and increased frequencies in the evenings and on Sundays to facilitate behavioural change; and setting a land use and transport framework within the context of developing 10,000 houses in the Cardiff area with little or no increase in public transport are key issues for the Commission to consider.
Its interim report proposing a fixed, 24-hour, 50mph speed limit on the M4 at Newport might preferably been delayed because of the economic implications outside peak periods.
Age eligibility for bus passes remains at 60.
The Cabinet rejected a money-saving scheme to increase it.
The coincidental difficulties in issuing the new passes; poor information with many older travellers frightened they would lose their passes; the “grey votes” political implications and if service levels are to be retained, the need to replace some free travel compensation payments made to bus companies’ with direct subsides.
Over 50% of bus travel in Wales involves concessionary passes.
The deputy transport minister Lee Waters has proposed a 20mph speed limit on urban roads for discussion with local councils.
This will have an impact on road casualty numbers – in the stopping distance for a car travelling at 20mph, one at 30mph may still be moving at 24 mph.
However the greatest impact is achieved through largely untapped techniques such as road design, new technology, behavioural change and enforcement – difficult to achieve with lack of police and civil enforcement resources.
There have also been warnings about too frequent changes in speed limits on a particular road prove a distraction to drivers.
While vehicle/pedestrian conflict has been a source of concern as car numbers have grown, cycle/pedestrian conflict has now become an issue with dangerous, irresponsible and illegal cycling on pavements and cyclists and traffic conflicting on the highway.
One hopes these new proposals will progress quicker than the cycle path programme prescribed by the Active Travel Board during my chairmanship over five years ago.
The passenger railway industry awaits the publication of the Williams Report into its future rumoured to include a new central body to coordinate train operating companies and the ending of the present franchising system.
This would please the Welsh Government whose intention has always been to have its own Transport for Wales (TfW) the Government’s own limited by guarantee company operate the Wales & Borders franchise.
This was awarded to TfW Rail Services (TfWRS) operated by Keolis Amey (KA) – a “conventional” train operating company under the existing statutory provisions.
The timing of any change however will be affected more by requiring Amey’s Valley Lines electrification technical designs than with current service delivery level.
The fares reductions next week are a Welsh Government “fares fair” policy decision.
Swansea’s passenger rail proposals preferred outcome is an integrated city region approach from Port Talbot to Pembrokeshire.
Increased frequencies on the main east-west line, additional fast services between Cardiff and Carmarthen cutting 22 minutes off the current journey times are integrated with a new Metro-type service form north-west Swansea and the lower Heart of Wales Line into the city centre via the existing Swansea District Line.
The Wales Public Transport Bill currently in preparation and based on the earlier public consultation may propose inter alia more public control of bus companies; bus franchising as in London and TfW bus company ownership with Cardiff Bus, Newport Bus and First Cymru, as possible first acquisitions.
■ Professor Stuart Cole CBE is Emeritus Professor of Transport (Economics and Policy), University of South Wales