Poll sparks warning of ‘political turmoil’ ahead
APERIOD of “unprecedented political turmoil” awaits Wales, as a new poll has found that three parties in Wales could be neck-and-neck after the Assembly elections due next year.
The forecast comes after the BBC released the results of its annual St David’s Day poll.
The research, by ICM Unlimited, now includes 16- and 17-year-olds, who will vote in 2021 for the first time.
The polling was of 1,000 people from across Wales, and was carried out between February 4-22. The results were then weighted.
Based on the results, Professor Roger Awan-Scully from Cardiff University suggests:
■ Labour would take 21 seats (down from 29 in 2016);
■ Conservatives take 20 (up from 11 in 2016); and
■ Plaid Cymru take 18 (up from 12 in 2016);
At next year’s Senedd elections, on the constituency vote, it forecasts Labour and the Conservatives each polling at 31%, Plaid Cymru at 26% and the Liberal Democrats at 6%. On the regional list vote, it has Labour at 31%, the Conservatives at 29%, Plaid Cymru at 25% and the Liberal Democrats at 5%.
The poll also suggests an increase in support for independence, up to 11% from 7% last year, while support for abolishing the Welsh Assembly remains consistent with last year at 14%.
A different poll earlier this year showed a rise to 21% for Welsh independence. Despite a rise in support, opposition to independence was 57%, according to the latest YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University.
Speaking about the St David’s Day poll, a Plaid Cymru spokesman said: “This poll shows it’s all to play for as we head towards the 2021 Senedd elections.
“Support for our Senedd to have more powers continues to ride high and the calls for independence are growing. People are seeing Adam Price’s hopeful message of a better Wales – a new Wales – and it is resonating with them.
“They are turning away from the increasingly lethargic Labour Party in favour of a change for the better. And in government Plaid Cymru will bring change for our nation that means better healthcare, education and jobs for the people of Wales.”
BBC Cymru Wales Welsh affairs editor Vaughan Roderick said: “Opinion polls are snapshots, not predictions, but Wales could be facing a period of unprecedented political turmoil if the three-way political split between Labour, the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru continues into next year.
“It is difficult to see what kind of government might emerge from an Assembly where all three parties had roughly equal number of seats.
“Plaid Cymru would be unlikely to support a newly-humbled Labour Party, while supporting a Conservative-led administration would be all but politically impossible for Labour and Plaid. In such circumstances, the Assembly might even be forced to vote to dissolve itself and hold a fresh election in an attempt to resolve the impasse.”