Six hit... but here’s how title race could pan out
WALES’ bid to successfully defend the Six Nations title they won with a magnificent Grand Slam a year ago disappeared when they were beaten 33-30 by England at Twickenham.
Wayne Pivac’s team are fifth in the table with only Italy, who have a game in hand, below them.
Defeat to Scotland at the Principality Stadium would almost certainly condemn them to a fifth place finish. The Scots have everything to play for after climbing to third in the table with victory over France, being just three points behind new leaders England and the French.
The top two are on 13 points with England ahead on points difference. Ireland, who have a game in hand following the postponement of their match with Italy in Dublin because of the coronavirus outbreak, are a point behind Scotland, who have 10, with Wales on seven and Italy on nil.
England’s remaining fixture, against Italy in Rome, has to be rescheduled after also falling foul of the epidemic but Eddie Jones’ side are favourites for the title with bookmakers irrespective of when it eventually takes place.
However, it’s not a given they will be crowned European champions for the third time under Jones, with France only having an inferior points difference of two and Ireland in a very strong position.
How the Six Nations stats currently look... Current points difference:
England: +15, France: +13, Scotland: +14, Ireland: +5, Wales: +25, Italy: -72
REMAINING FIXTURES
Saturday: Wales v Scotland. To be rearranged: Ireland v Italy; France v Ireland; Italy v England.
THE VARIOUS SCENARIOS... IRELAND - CURRENTLY FOURTH ON NINE POINTS
IRELAND are the only team who have their fate in their own hands as things stand.
Bonus-point victories over Italy and France, in Paris, would result in Johnny Sexton and company being crowned champions for the second time in three campaigns.
They would have accumulated 19 points with it being impossible for them to be overtaken by England.
It’s not inconceivable it could happen because most would expect a maximum haul against Italy and Ireland have a healthy record in Paris.
That’s a match in which the Irish and France will both be desperate for a winning bonus point, which could ensure a high-scoring affair, to improve their title prospects.
FRANCE - SECOND ON 13 POINTS
LES Bleus’ Grand Slam hopes were blown away 28-17 at Murrayfield following the first-half sending-off of fiery prop Mohamed Haouas for punching Scotland back-row forward Jamie Ritchie in the face.
They have to beat Ireland and hope England slip up in Italy to be certain of the title.
A bonus-point win over Ireland would also give France their first title in a decade should England not match it.
It would come down to points difference if they finish level on match points with France needing to better England by at least three points in their respective results during the final round of fixtures.
SCOTLAND - THIRD ON 10 POINTS
THE Scots actually have a slim but highly unlikely chance of lifting the title.
Victory for Gregor Townsend’s Scots in what was the opening fixture on Super Saturday would take them to 14 points, one more than England and France. In the event of France and England coming unstuck, Scotland would finish above both.
However, should either of those two lose but pick up two points – either through a draw or by scoring four or more tries and losing by seven or less points – Scotland would require a bonus-point victory in Cardiff to match them.
ENGLAND - TOP ON 13 POINTS
A BONUS-POINT triumph over the Azzurri would probably be enough to see off France for the title, but they will be nervously looking over their shoulder at Ireland’s results.
Failing to secure bonus points after scoring three tries against Ireland and Wales and being in a dominant position in both matches could come back to haunt them.
If they had scored a fourth try to get a bonus point versus both Ireland and Wales, England would be clear leaders and already have a hand on the championship with only an enormous upset against Italy threatening to scupper their bid for glory.