Western Mail

WHAT DIRECTION DOES TAN TAKE THE BLUEBIRDS IN?

- PAUL ABBANDONAT­O Head of sport paul.abbandonat­o@walesonlin­e.co.uk

AFTER 10 years in charge, two promotions to the Premier League, a Wembley cup final against Liverpool and a pretty epic ride in general, Vincent Tan is today said to stand at something of a crossroads with Cardiff City.

The path he chooses next is likely to determine whether the Bluebirds become a genuine promotion-chasing team under Neil Harris next season, or whether they turn into midtable also-rans.

Those close to Tan indicate he appears to have three options as he ponders the next move for Wales’ capital city club,

1: Burn more money on transfers, having already estimated to have committed around £165m of his personal fortune to the Bluebirds.

This option would free up the funds for Neil Harris to sign three or four quality players this summer to make a genuine push for automatic promotion next season – but it would come against the backdrop of a Covid-19 crisis which has hit football in general and Tan’s leisure businesses in the Far East.

2: Alter the cost base of the club.

This would mean Tan trying to offset losses by significan­tly trimming the playing budget and even selling some star players. It would most likely turn Cardiff into a mid-table team – and that is something the hugely ambitious Tan has never wanted.

3: Sell the club.

I’m told a Cardiff City sale document does exist behind the scenes, although I’m also assured this is quite standard practice in business and not too much should be read into it.

Tan has recently turned down two offers from abroad to buy the Bluebirds and it seems unlikely he will be heading head down this route any time soon, either.

So, what will happen as Tan and his confidants look at the next step of his Bluebirds adventure following the failure to edge past Fulham in the play-offs, meaning they are consigned to Championsh­ip football again next season?

Only Tan can answer that question and I’m told he is weighing up the various scenarios in Malaysia, though obviously in constant communicat­ion with Cardiff ’s senior management.

It is a situation which is understand­ably occupying his thoughts because of what’s happened with Covid-19.

As well as seeing his businesses affected, Tan has still had to delve into his pockets during lockdown to keep the Bluebirds afloat by paying an estimated monthly wage bill of £2m, with no income coming in via match-day revenue.

With the Premier League parachute payments also coming down for Cardiff, these are among the issues Tan is looking at before deciding whether to free up substantia­l funds for Harris in the summer transfer window.

To put some perspectiv­e on this, Tan estimates he has in effect committed £165m of his personal fortune in funding the club since buying Cardiff a decade ago.

He estimates to be ‘burning’ on average around £25m a year, the difference between revenue and costs.

Tan could cut his losses, even get an element of that money back, by selling Cardiff. But there are also £45m of liabilitie­s hanging over the club from the ongoing Emiliano Sala case and shock legal action launched against the Bluebirds by former owner Sam Hammam, who feels the terms of his presidency were breached, and ex-director Michael Isaac, whose shares were diluted.

Cardiff are confident of winning the three cases against them, but would a prospectiv­e buyer really take on the club in those circumstan­ces given they have not reached the Premier League?

Tan will only give up the reins to people he genuinely believes can take Cardiff City to the next level – he didn’t feel the previous two offers, one from Canada, the other also from abroad, were right for the club.

As a capital city club, Cardiff City

have enormous potential and a huge fan base to tap into if they get it right and can sustain top-flight success.

Part of Tan senses he can still achieve that under his own watch.

So in reality the next step of Cardiff’s adventure boils down to one of two choices: accepting financial reality and cutting costs dramatical­ly, as was the case briefly under Russell Slade; or pushing the boat out again, as happened under Neil Warnock, and really going for automatic promotion in 2020-21.

It isn’t Tan’s style to do mid-table mediocrity, he has won two promotions and wants a third – and this time for the Bluebirds to stabilise themselves in the Premier League.

As such, when push comes to shove and after careful thought, the likelihood, marginally, is that he will opt to burn more money and free up funds for Harris.

Already the Bluebirds boss has made it clear he wants to sign Wales striker Kieffer Moore and make him a focal point he can build a promotion challenge around.

Moore will probably cost around £3m and there is a feeling he can finally be the 20-goal striker Cardiff have coveted since the days of Jay Bothroyd and Michael Chopra.

The fact he plays for Wales too is a bonus. The fans would afford Moore latitude if he didn’t hit the ground running with goals straightaw­ay.

Cardiff haven’t had anywhere near enough Welsh players in their lineup in recent years. Moore and Will Vaulks would alter that dynamic for the better.

Harris faces a lot of competitio­n from other Championsh­ip clubs, but hopes to land his man. But Cardiff need more than Moore.

Under Harris they finished fifth, and to go to the next stage, which is top two, the Bluebirds need quality, not quantity this summer.

Lee Tomlin has been brilliant, but given his fitness issues Harris badly needs back-up in the creative 10 position. That kind of individual won’t come cheap. A right-back is a necessity, but Harris will also explore options at centre-half, midfield and on the wing.

The key is landing players who are good enough to step straight into the first XI and improve the side to drive the Bluebirds over the promotion line. But that means spending money. Again.

There might, however, be something of a compromise solution he can also instruct Harris and Bluebirds chief executive Ken Choo to work towards. Cardiff ’s squad is already bloated and to land the quality newcomers he wants Harris may be told to sell players who became fringe figures under him.

This would at least enable Cardiff to balance the books a little.

Who those players could be, and how much Cardiff could raise, is anyone’s guess.

But Neil Etheridge, for example, was wanted in an £8m move by West Ham a year ago. He is a quality goalkeeper in his own right, but has lost his place to Alex Smithies. Only one of those two can play. They are each excellent, each deserves to.

Aden Flint was signed for more than £4m, but it hasn’t worked out for whatever reason. He may also need to leave to get the week in, week out action he will want, particular­ly if Harris wishes to bring in another centre-back.

Josh Murphy is an enigma. On his day he can be a world-beater at this level, but his confidence looks low at times. Could Cardiff cash in , or does Harris make Murphy a mainstay of his side next season with Nathaniel Mendez-Laing on the other wing?

If Harris wants another midfielder, does one of his current players in that position need to head through the departure door?

Again, none of this is as simple as it appears. Other clubs will also be looking to trim their own wage bills, cut down on paying hefty transfer fees because of the financial crisis.

That might affect Tan’s decisionma­king process. But when he weighs up the options in front of him, the hope is Tan will give it another go because you sense promotion will be up for grabs next season for a team ready to push the boat out.

The big two of Leeds and West Brom are out of the way. They went up because they had worldrenow­ned managers in Marcelo Bielsa

and Slaven Bilic.

Stoke will be a force, but is there really too much for Cardiff to fear?

The sides who have come down from the Premier League could struggle to adjust, Norwich in particular, while Bournemout­h and Watford are almost certain to sell their best players and have managerial issues to sort out.

None of the teams who have come up from League One, Coventry, Rotherham and Wycombe, can really expect to be in the promotion mix.

With quality acquisitio­ns Cardiff can push for the top two, but Tan also wants to see his dream of homegrown players given their chance by Harris to make the most of an academy which was largely spurned by some of his predecesso­rs in the job.

There is a misnomer about Cardiff’s academy. The talent is most certainly there – Craig Bellamy raves about some of it. The key is a firstteam manager courageous enough to give the youngsters a chance.

Harris appears more receptive to that idea than other Cardiff bosses who preferred experience to youth, but Tan will want to see evidence of that happening to convince him the club is heading in the right direction.

The more immediate task is how to approach the transfer window that has just opened.

The quality of the signings made in the coming weeks, and possible outgoings, will tell us a lot about the next stage of the Tan adventure.

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 ?? Nathan Stirk ?? > Is Wales striker Kieffer Moore the man to get the goals for Cardiff City next term?
Nathan Stirk > Is Wales striker Kieffer Moore the man to get the goals for Cardiff City next term?
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 ?? Stu Forster ?? > Vincent Tan has some big decisions to make this summer
Stu Forster > Vincent Tan has some big decisions to make this summer

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