No crisis yet... but one could be just around the corner for Wales
WELSH rugby may not be in crisis, but this will do until the crisis shows up. Wales have a genuine must-win game today against Georgia in order to both arrest the run of defeats and rediscover some hope before facing England in a week’s time.
I was disappointed and surprised in equal measure by the performance against Ireland. It consisted not just of errors, but the same errors repeated time and again. The setpiece crumbled under pressure and it took Wales about 50 minutes until they could string a few phases together.
Wayne Pivac and all those within the Wales set-up will be acutely aware that unless there is a significant improvement in both results and performance, their future is sealed.
In fairness, the coaches have not looked to excuse the deterioration and neither will I.
Where Pivac has been unlucky in that two of his six defeats has come against France. They were a basket case for most of Gatland’s tenure and as soon as Pivac takes over, they become a world force again.
The other constraint that Pivac faces is the poor quality of the regional game from which he selects his players.
Gatland’s success came despite this weakness, and was all the more remarkable because of that. But that success allowed us all to ignore and normalise the perpetual failures of the regional game.
When was the last time we expected a Welsh region to go to Leinster or Munster and win? Our expectations have fallen year by year to a level that a 20-point loss in Ireland is met with a shrug of the shoulders rather than genuine disappointment.
It is true that the national team’s needs were prioritised above the regions and that is partly behind the disparity between regional and national success, but Pivac has enjoyed the same advantage on this measure so it does not explain the demise.
This is another topic for another time.
One could say that injuries and absences have not helped. I’m sure that the team miss Ken Owens, Josh Navidi and Hadleigh Parkes. All three were key personnel in the worst-performing areas of Wales this autumn, the set-piece, the tackle area and point of attack in midfield.
But the depths of this descent is greater than the loss of a few players.
Injuries are part of the game and you must expect to be without a few players at any one time. Teams must be robust enough to endure player turnover and for it not to dramatically affect performance.
Most coaches get the job when the incumbent gets the sack and the only way is up. But Pivac inherited a successful team where virtually all the players were staying on.
So, what is behind the drop off in performance?
My theory is that the coaches have put too much emphasis on trying to embed the attacking structure they want to deploy in multi-phase rugby and have taken their eyes off the fundamentals of the game.
I suspect that there is less time allotted to the scrum, lineout and the defence than there was under Gatland.
Now that might not be too difficult since Gatland didn’t really care much for anything other than the scrum, lineout and defence. But those foundations of rugby need constant practice to embed the muscle memory, otherwise they wilt under pressure.
Don’t get me wrong, I was no fan of Warrenball and do not want to narrow Wales’ ambition.
What frustrated me about that style of play was that Wales would work so hard to have a good setpiece and to win the collisions, but not wish to use that possession for anything positive.
I agree with Pivac’s direction of travel, but you cannot skip to the fancy bits without ensuring the platform has been secured. That is where the team is falling down.
Jake Ball and Wyn Jones made a good impact last Friday, adding some physicality to the forward effort.
The back-row has been lacking gainline presence and Ross Moriarty and Navidi are sorely missed.
Georgia will feel they have chance against Wales’ pack this weekend. With a high likelihood of rain making the scrum and lineout decisive they must feel this is as good as it gets for them to get the juggernaut rolling up front.
England’s 40-point win against them was harder fought that the score suggests.
All but one of the tries came from tight forward efforts. Could Wales score three tries from driving lineouts?
When Wales faced them in the World Cup, the Georgians were undone by the precision of the strike moves from first phase. Quality setpiece possession set up incisive line breaks that pierced a stunned defence.
I would be amazed if Georgia don’t compete in every scrum and lineout.
They will also be looking to win the collisions.
Should Wales not have quality ball and not be able to control the tempo of the game and the point of attack, they will not break through their defence.
When I heard that Pivac had been appointed the next Welsh coach, I remember looking forward to seeing this group of players being encouraged to play with more attacking intent. I expected them to retain the best aspects of the past, the physical intensity, the fitness and the defence and to add some of what we saw Pivac’s Scarlets do with the ball in hand.
Currently Wales are doing neither. I am confident Wales can stop the rot this weekend. They need to, otherwise we will be at panic stations.
I think Wales will win by 20 points, but we need improvements across the board too.
Gwyn Jones is part of S4C’s Clwb Rygbi team. Watch live coverage of Wales v Georgia from 4.45pm today, on S4C. Clwb Rygbi will also show live coverage of Leinster v Cardiff Blues from 5pm on Sunday, and full match replays of Ospreys v Benetton (Sunday, 10.05pm) and Ulster v Scarlets (Monday, 10.30pm). Ahead of Wales v Georgia, download the Sgarmes Ddigidol podcast with Rhodri Gomer, Shane Williams, Nigel Owens and Kevin Morgan, available from all podcast providers.