‘Virus could surge if lockdown eased too soon’
THE Welsh Government’s top scientific advisers have given a stark warning about the dangers of easing lockdown.
Wales could experience an “exponential growth” of coronavirus cases should lockdown restrictions be eased too quickly, the nation’s Technical Advisory Cell has told ministers.
In a report dated February 7, which has just been published, the Technical Advisory Cell (TAC) states that “continued vigilance” is required to ensure we remain on “an improving trajectory”.
Latest Public Health Wales figures show that the seven-day infection rate is down to 107.4 cases per 100,000 population, a huge drop on the 650 cases per 100,000 seen in December.
The testing positivity rate is also down to 9.1%, which is below a key Welsh Government threshold for easing lockdown restrictions.
But the TAC warns that easing restrictions too early or too quickly could result in Wales returning to these high winter peaks and NHS hospitals once again seeing record numbers of Covid patients.
“It is likely that the current restrictions in Wales and the good adherence to them is reducing the size of the Covid-19 epidemic in Wales,” the report states.
“These reductions are from exceptionally high peaks of infections and hospitalisations, and the NHS still remains under pressure. Continued vigilance is required to ensure we remain on an improving trajectory.
“Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling have modelled the likely progress of the epidemic if restrictions are lifted too early or too quickly and found there is high likelihood of returning to current levels of infections.”
SOME cancer patients are being excluded from priority in the queue for Covid-19 vaccination because their treatment has been delayed due to the virus, according to an NHS whistleblower.
The health worker, in the Hywel Dda University Health Board area, which covers west Wales, told the Western Mail: “People with lung cancer aren’t in the shielding/ extremely vulnerable category unless they are currently undergoing chemotherapy or radiotherapy.
“The problem is that their chemotherapy/radiotherapy has been delayed due to the virus so they are in a no-win situation.
“Because their therapy has been delayed, they can’t be vaccinated as they are not considered vulnerable enough.
“It’s the same with other cancers and the same across Wales, I would presume.
“We have a list of those who are vulnerable/ shielding and the fact is cancer patients are only in the list if they are actively undergoing chemo/ radiotherapy despite those treatments being delayed.
“It is upsetting when we have to say, ‘Sorry, you aren’t on the current list and it is up to supply from the health board when you will get the vaccine’.”
Ros Jervis, director of public health at Hywel Dda University Health Board, said: “No systemic anti-cancer treatments, such as chemotherapy, immunotherapy, etc, have been suspended within Hywel Dda UHB due to Covid-19 and all four chemotherapy units in the health board are delivering chemotherapy to patients.
“Chemotherapy would only be delayed if the patient is Covid-19 positive, or isolating following a contact with someone who is, and treatment would go ahead when the isolation period is over and the patient has recovered and is well. Patients on a suspected cancer referral pathway will also be referred for vaccination as early as possible once a diagnosis of cancer is deemed highly likely or confirmed.
“We are finalising arrangements to support those eligible patients who have not already received their vaccination and these individuals will be contacted as soon as possible to achieve this in line with their treatment plan.
“Our approach is consistent with that taken by other NHS organisations across Wales and in liaison with the Wales Cancer Network.
“Our vaccination programme as a whole remains in line with the UKwide policy and advice from the Joint Committee for Vaccinations and Immunisations and I wish to reassure people that everyone who is eligible and wants a vaccination will receive one.”
The health worker responded: “My point was that patients who have lung cancer or prostate cancer diagnoses and haven’t yet begun treatment are not considered to be in the extremely vulnerable category for the Covid-19 vaccination programme. I have spoken to patients with diagnosed cancers who are feeling extremely vulnerable.”
A spokeswoman for the health board said: “We would encourage any patient with concerns about their care and treatment to contact our patient support team for help and advice by calling 0300 0200 159 or emailing: hdhb.patientsupportservices@wales.nhs.uk
“We also encourage staff with queries, concerns or feedback to raise them either with their direct line manager/supervisor, their local workforce or trade union representative, or other specific individuals depending on the issue so their questions or concerns can be considered and discussed openly with them in a positive and constructive way.
“Staff are also able to submit their questions anonymously via our internal mythbuster facility, which can be found on our staff intranet.”
A Welsh Government spokeswoman said: “This will be a worrying time for anyone facing a cancer diagnosis or treatment.
“Throughout the pandemic, we have worked with NHS Wales to ensure as much cancer care as possible continues.
“If someone is concerned their medical condition or treatment means they may be clinically extremely vulnerable (previously shielding) they can contact their GP or hospital clinician to discuss this matter. GPs and hospital clinicians are able to update individual records in order to add a person to the shielding patient list, where appropriate.”