EU remains wary of separatist movements
ON FEBRUARY 14 there will be elections to the Catalan Parliament. These are not normal elections in a regional parliament but are yet another chapter in the confrontation between the Catalan independence movement and the Spanish state.
The European institutions are hoping that the Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will defuse the independence movement with some kind of negotiation. The problem is that Sánchez is very reluctant to negotiate, firstly, because his party is deeply Spanish nationalist and, secondly, because any concessions in Catalonia would be used against him by Spain’s ultranationalist right-wing parties.
Sánchez would need to be the party with the most votes in the elections to force a pact that would allow him to expel the proindependence supporters from the Catalan institutions and end the crisis. If he succeeds, he will be able to say in Europe that the Catalan problem is deflating and that there is no need to worry.
Will things go as the Spanish prime minister wishes? After three years of relentless repression, the grass-roots independence movement remains determined and mobilised. Catalan proindependence supporters see these elections as an opportunity to show that the Catalan problem has not gone away and will not go away as long as their demands are not heard.
Polls show a three-way tie between Junts, the pro-independence party of Carles Puigdemont, ERC, also pro-independence, and the PSC, the Catalan branch of the Spanish socialist party. The proindependence parties could repeat the absolute majority and exceed 50% of the votes. Therefore, it seems unlikely that Sánchez’s party will win enough seats to form a nonindependence government.
Europe has so far been inclined not to interfere in the Catalan case, for fear of stirring up other separatist movements and to avoid angering Spain. However, if proindependence supporters achieve a resounding victory on February 14, Europe will have to accept that the Catalan problem will not be solved by looking the other way.
Maria M Garayoa Barcelona, Catalonia