Russell is prone to mistakes... and that gives Wales a chance
RUGBY SENSE FROM THE S4C PUNDIT
WALES needed that win against Ireland. It should have been more comfortable against 14 men and they did their best to let the Irish pinch it.
But a win’s a win and Wales are on their way.
Murrayfield next, against a Scotland side who have arrived after years of threatening to be a decent team.
Their demolition of England’s pack at Twickenham was a sight to see. They were as impressive as England were woeful and should have won by more.
So it sets up an intriguing contest at Murrayfield and one that I suspect will not be played in the traditional Wales-Scotland style of rugby.
Thinking of this game from a Scotland perspective, the last time they played Wales in the Autumn Nations Cup, they won.
It was a forgettable match from a Welsh perspective, tight and slow and nothing much happened.
What Scotland took from that victory was their dominance at the tackle area.
They forced 16 penalties from Wales, mainly at the breakdown. They snuffed out any attacking ambitions Wales tried to develop with the marauding back-rowers of Hamish Watson and Jamie Ritchie in complete control.
Watson in particular is on a different level from his peers.
Speaking on Radio Cymru many years ago, John Hartson was asked to describe what it was like to play with Tony Adams at Arsenal, he said: “Mae Tony Adams yn absolute monster of a dyn”. I don’t think it needs translating but the message was clear.
Watson is of the same ilk. His strength and dynamism appears innate, rather than acquired by hours in the gym.
He is ferocious in contact and invariably impacts the phase he is involved with.
He is a leader in the Scottish pack that has inspired Ritchie, Richie Gray and others to patrol the fringes and win turnovers.
Scotland want a controlled game, with contact areas close to their back-row - where their best players can have the biggest influence.
They do not want a loose mess, where there is space and time for unstructured attacks to begin.
Scotland will also want to pressurise the Welsh lineout. It remains an open sore that teams take turns in inflicting more pain. Scotland will kick to touch and wait to see the anxiety emerge from the Welsh pack.
I am hoping that we will see a few steps forward from Wales in the lineout. Some consistency in the key positions will help and a week of practice should pay off.
So if Scotland want order and structure, it places unusual constraints on Finn Russell at fly-half. Despite receiving plaudits for his performance against England, I thought he was poor.
Indeed he was part of the reason why they didn’t win by more.
Russell has great skills and is willing to try things, but his error rate can be massive and I think
Wales will be looking to get at him on Saturday.
The other reason Scotland will not want the game to open up is that would play into the hands of the players most likely to create chances for Wales, namely Justin Tipuric and Taulupe Faletau.
If Scotland engage them in the forward battle, they will feel able to shut them down.
The loss of George North is a huge blow. Wales started against Ireland with Johnny Williams and North in midfield. A centre partnership of considerable size and power where either is capable of winning gain line battles.
Having lost the two of them, who in the three-quarters is going to cross the gain line for Wales?
We have quality in the back three but they are not players you would look to bring off the wing to crash into midfield to get the team moving forward.
Wales cannot just sling it wide either without holding the inside defence.
It will have to be ball carrying by committee, Ken Owens, Alun Wyn Jones, Faletau doing the bulk of the work.
But what I see as the most important area that Wales must get an advantage is in the driving lineout. It is a way of scoring tries, of crossing gain lines and of winning penalties. It nullifies their back-row and gives the backs a platform from which to attack.
Without a driving lineout, it puts the pressure on the carrying game and my main concern for this match is that Wales have a lack of gain line power and we will not be able to escape Scotland’s consuming loose forwards.
Having said that, matches have a tendency to go their own way and there is a reason why Wales-Scotland games are more often than not open encounters. It’s because that is the natural instinct of these countries.
That is why Finn Russell will find it hard to supress his exuberance and stick to the game plan.
This is why Wales have a decent chance in Scotland this weekend.
I still think Scotland are favourites, flying high from their historic win against England.
But I would not be surprised if Wales were to win.
There were clear signs of improvement against Ireland. Another step in that direction and a bit of good fortune and Wales could win a for a second time.
Gwyn Jones is a part of S4C’s Clwb Rygbi Rhyngwladol team. Coverage of Scotland v Wales gets underway at 4pm today, on S4C and S4C Clic. Watch every Wales match during the 2021 Guinness Six Nations on S4C.
ALUN Wyn Jones and Jake Ball have made up following the incident that left the Wales skipper with a black eye, says George North.
Ball landed a punch on fellow second row Jones when a training session overheated on the Wednesday before the opening Six Nations match against Ireland.
As a result, Jones was sporting bruising and marking around his left eye as he led Wales to a 21-16 victory over the Irish at the Principality Stadium.
Team-mate North has been speaking about the flare-up on the RugbyPass Offload podcast.
“I try and stay away from the forwards when they go about their business, just because inevitably it’s a physical game,” said the Ospreys threequarter.
“Luckily, forwards and backs have their units split and from what I gather it was quite a good unit session.
“When you are doing driving mauls and lineouts and stuff, things tend to get a bit heated.
“At the end of the day, it’s just rugby and those boys trying to get the best out of each other.”
Revealing the follow up to the incident, North said: “They have made up since.
“It was a bit weird, a bit awkward everyone watching, but they did make up.
“Al has had, what is it, 195,000 caps now and he’s still going strong. The boys see what he puts in and they need to have that edge about them going into a Test match.
“Sometimes, it does spill over and naturally everything gets blown up in the press, saying it was a 12 round bout and it went down to points.
“But those boys in that position, they have to have that edge, otherwise you would be losing.
“Everyone is friends and everyone has made up. No hugs, obviously, because of Covid, but they did knuckle it out. Not like that, but you know what I mean!”
North had been set to win his 100th Welsh cap against Scotland at Murrayfield this weekend, but a foot injury has prevented him from taking his place at outside centre.
The hope is he will be fit again in time for the next Six Nations match at home to England in a fortnight.
ANYTHING’S possible when Scotland and Wales clash at Murrayfield. Here’s how weighs up the teams this weekend...
MARK ORDERS Stuart Hogg 8 v 7 Leigh Halfpenny
THE key when opposing Scotland’s full-back is to put him under pressure and test his defence, with Hogg known to miss the odd tackle.
But he is in form. Against England he ran well from the back and came up with some pinpoint kicking out of hand, securing his side good field positions.
Halfpenny would tackle a runaway bison if such a deed moved Wales a millimetre closer to victory. He also reads play intelligently. Could he offer more with ball in hand? Yes. But on his day he can still be a major influence.
Darcy Graham 7 v 7 Liam Williams
GRAHAM’S childhood hero was Shane Williams — “he’s pretty much the same build as me and had amazing skills” — and the Melroseborn player is himself an elusive player who has pace and a step.
A higher mark would usually come the way of Williams, but he’s short of rugby, with injuries and a suspension meaning he’s played just seven times since the World Cup. When he’s at his best, he’s a game-breaker.
Chris Harris 6 v 6 Owen Watkin
HARRIS runs hard and keeps defences honest. He is also a strong defender.
He isn’t weighed down by X-factor, though.
It’s a big opportunity for Watkin. He’s solid and doesn’t make many mistakes, but at Test level he’s kept his attacking skills under wraps. If he reveals them at Murrayfield, it would be a huge plus for Wales.
James Lang 6 v 6 Nick Tompkins
LANG could have been lining up for Wales rather than opposing them, with his father hailing from Penarth. Junior spent three seasons with RGC 1404 but, despite looking a cut above, ended up at Harlequins rather than with a region. He can miss tackles but had a decent game against Wales in the autumn.
Tompkins did more right than wrong off the bench against Ireland. If there are still a few rough edges in his game, he doesn’t shirk work and he can come up with key moments. Duhan van der Merwe 8 v 7 Louis Rees-Zammit
THE hulking Scottish left wing’s Twitter bio contains the line “making the rest of my life the best of my life”.
Wales won’t want to buy into that particular aspiration until after 7pm on Saturday evening at the earliest.
But the 6ft 4in, 16st 10lb van der Merwe is a handful. He scatters defenders, scores tries and is seen as a potential Lion.
How Rees-Zammit copes with him will be fascinating.
The youngster did an excellent marking job on James Lowe last weekend and Wales will want him to close down van der Merwe’s space.
If he’s wise, van the Merwe will be alert himself, mind, with ReesZammit himself a natural born finisher. If Scotland give him quarter of a chance he will take it.
Finn Russell 8 v 7 Dan Biggar
A CLASH of styles.
Russell is an entertainer, a player who likes to take risks and express himself. Against England a week ago he clearly worried a defence that isn’t used to being worried, running from behind his own line at one point.
His game wasn’t without errors, though, and Wales will want to put him under pressure because he is key for the hosts. Ruffle him, ruffle Scotland. By contrast, Biggar had next to no platform against Ireland. He isn’t as creative as Russell, but he’s a battler who never gives in and a good game-manager. He’ll hope for more ball to show what he can do in attack this weekend.
Ali Price 6 v 6 Gareth Davies
TWO players who’ll have points to prove. Price would have been seeing Maro Itoje in his sleep last Saturday night after being charged down repeatedly by the England lock. There were other mistakes in the Scot’s game, too, even if he tried to play with tempo.
There’s a reasonable chance Wayne Pivac has calmed down after Davies’ decision to kick the ball away to Ireland in the final seconds, but Wales’ head coach would doubtless have needed multiple sessions of Zen therapy to do so. Davies’ gamemanagement will be under scrutiny from the start this weekend. On a good day, the Scarlet can hurt opponents with his pace, but he needs to get his decision-making right.
Rory Sutherland 8 v 7 Tomas Francis
A GOOD contest here. Sutherland is seen as a rival to Mako Vunipola for a Lions Test spot and his reputation wasn’t undermined by anything he did against England. He scrummaged well and has helped improve the Scottish set-piece no end since his recall to the side last year.
Let’s see how it goes this time. Francis’ effort against Ireland went largely unsung. He not only anchored the Welsh scrum impressively but also put in 19 tackles. In case anyone’s wondering, that’s an extraordinary tally for a tight-head prop.
George Turner 6 v 7 Ken Owens
THESE two were the best hookers on display in round one.
Turner didn’t miss with a single line-out throw and was busy around the field. Owens may have hit the odd problem with his darts but he was immense in other respects, piling up 20 tackles and carrying with venom. Can Wales’ No.2 locate his set-piece accuracy? So much depends on it.
Zander Fagerson 7 v 7 Wyn Jones ANOTHER key battle, with Fagerson’s stock improving by the game and Jones man of the match for Wales last time out. What particularly impressed about Jones last Sunday was his willingness to take the fight to the opposition with purposeful carrying and solid tackling. He also achieved a turnover. Another good performance would boost his chances of a place on the Lions tour. But Fagerson will be a good test.
Scott Cummings 6 v 6 Adam Beard CUMMINGS has established himself at the heart of Scotland’s pack and was their number one line-out target against England, doing a fine job.
No-one should be surprised at Wales’ ongoing problems in the throwing, catching and jumping game, with four different hookers and four different lock pairings over their last four games.
Beard is 6ft 8in and a capable jumper. He’s also a solid defender who works hard around the field. But he needs to transfer his regional form to the Test stage.
Jonny Gray 8 v 8 Alun Wyn Jones TWO talismanic figures, both outstanding on the opening Six Nations weekend. The way Gray tore into England was a sight to behold. A stat released by Opta this week revealed that the Scot has a tackle success rate of 98 percent in the Six Nations (439/449), the best rate of the 243 players to make 100 or more hits in the competition’s history.
In the past, there have been suggestions his game lacked fire, but last week there was a conflagration pretty much every time he was involved. This weekend, he’s up against Alun Wyn Jones, however.
The Welsh captain was inspirational around the field against Ireland, back to his 2019 best. Wales will need him operating at that level again.
Blade Thomson 6 v 6 Aaron Wainwright
TWO players coming in for others. Thomson is athletic and can pose a breakdown threat, something Wales will need to be wary of, while Wainwright gets a chance because of injuries to Dan Lydiate, Josh Navidi and Josh Macleod.
On his game, the Welshman can make a lot of ground with ball in hand and defend solidly, but so can Thomson.
Hamish Watson 8 v 9 Justin Tipuric IT was once said that every five to 10 years boxing sees the fight of the century. Hype, hype, hooray.
But there’s every chance this contest between the opensides will live up to its must-see billing.
Watson is a fierce breakdown operator who can not only tackle but also carry powerfully, with his ability to bounce off would-be defenders making him difficult to bring down.
Tipuric is a master organiser in defence and a wonderfully skilled player in attack. His breakdown work can be exceptional, too. When he’s beaten in defence at any point in a game – a rarity, thankfully for Wayne Pivac –Wales know they have problems.
Matt Fagerson 7 v 8 Taulupe Faletau
FAGERSON performed strongly against England in attack and defence, but Faletau on his game is a world-class player capable of dominating matches. He was part of an excellent Welsh back row last weekend.
TOTALS Scotland 105 Wales 104
SCOTLAND and Wales meet at Murrayfield today after both opened their Guinness Six Nations campaigns with victories.
Here, the PA news agency looks at some of the key talking points heading into the game...
Can Scotland back up Twickenham triumph?
CONFIDENCE and momentum are two priceless commodities in top-level sport, and Scotland should have both in abundance after ending 38 years of hurt at Twickenham by beating England and reclaiming the Calcutta Cup. It was a performance way more dominant than the 11-6 scoreline suggested.
The challenge for Gregor Townsend’s side now is to show that success was not a one-off. If Scotland get things right again and Wales are sent packing, then they truly can be considered Six Nations title challengers.
Wales often thrive in adversity
WALES’Test match history is littered with victories against the odds, and perhaps none more so than a game against Scotland that took place 11 years ago on Saturday. Wales trailed 24-14 in Cardiff with just five minutes left, but they conjured a magical revival to win after Shane Williams’ try during the closing seconds.
Wales now head to Murrayfield without nine members of their squad through injuries or suspension, including three front-line centres and three blindside flankers. It is a classic backs-against-the-wall scenario that Wales will relish.
Liam Williams’ Test match return is timely
AMID Wales’ injury issues, Liam Williams almost slipped unnoticed through the back door as he prepares to make only a sixth Wales appearance since the World Cup quarter-final defeat against France in October 2019.
The British and Irish Lions back, a star performer on the 2017 New Zealand tour, has missed nine of Wales’ 14 Tests since that French game, being sidelined initially by a long-term ankle problem and more recently through a three-match ban. Wales head coach Wayne Pivac has wasted no time in recalling the 29-year-old game-breaker, who will enhance his team’s victory hopes.
Seven heaven as flankers go head to head
TWO of the form openside flankers in world rugby meet today when Scotland’s Hamish Watson and Wales’ Justin Tipuric face off.
In the year of a Lions tour, Watson made a strong selection claim during Scotland’s Twickenham triumph. Tipuric, a key part of Wales’ armoury for the best part of 10 years, continues delivering one world-class display after another, and whichever teams wins this weekend, it is virtually guaranteed that Watson or Tipuric will be at the forefront.
Freezing, empty Murrayfield a reminder of the times
SCOTLAND and Wales have served up some memorable matches over the years, and if they can deliver one on Saturday then it would certainly lift spirits.
Every two years, Edinburgh is awash with a sea of red - Welsh fans travelling north in their thousands, packing the bars and pubs of Rose Street and making the three-mile walk on match-day from downtown Princes Street to Murrayfield. The coronavirus pandemic and subsequent restrictions mean there will be no supporters this time. A forecast temperature of minus one Celsius will accompany it, so a red-hot encounter would be most welcome.