As Keir Starmer stumbles, will Wales reflect the Labour Party’s difficulties?
After a year at the helm of the Labour Party, questions are being asked about Keir Starmer’s leadership as the Tories surge ahead in polls. Political editor-at-large Martin Shipton reports...
EARLIER this week, according to the Huffington Post, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer angrily denounced members of his shadow cabinet who had briefed against his staff.
Without naming anyone – but making it clear he knew some of those present were involved – he described those responsible as “cowards” and warned shadow ministers that they should quit if they were unhappy with his leadership team.
He told the weekly meeting of the shadow cabinet that he was appalled by recent criticism of his aides, saying those responsible should “either stop now or have the guts to get out” of his frontbench team.
He said that if anyone wanted to criticise his leadership they should direct that at him rather than act like “cowards who attack my staff”.
Immediately after the meeting, what had been said was leaked to journalists.
It seems that a heated discussion followed Sir Keir’s outburst, with two of his most vigorous supporters being the Welsh MPs Nick ThomasSymonds, the shadow home secretary, and Jo Stevens, the shadow culture secretary.
The incident provides anecdotal evidence of the turmoil at the top of the British Labour Party following polling figures that put it significantly behind the Conservatives.
The bad news has come little more than a year after Sir Keir won the leadership and in advance of elections in Wales, Scotland and English local authorities that will provide his first significant test at the ballot box.
When he took over from Jeremy Corbyn, there was an expectation that Labour’s polling would improve following the heavy General Election defeat in December 2019, and for a while that happened.
But for all the mistakes he made in handling the pandemic, Boris Johnson is now enjoying a “vaccine bounce” in the polls.
Whether that will extend to Wales, where distribution of the vaccines is the responsibility of the Welsh Government, remains unclear.
There are other factors that have diminished the support for Labour.
Darren Williams, a former member of Labour’s national executive who still sits on its Welsh executive and is secretary of the left-wing Welsh Labour Grassroots group, said: “Starmer has been too cautious, in my view, in tackling the UK Tory government for its incompetence and corruption, of which there has been plenty of evidence.
“During his leadership campaign he said he wouldn’t undo the policy agenda that had brought us a lot of support, but he hasn’t stuck to that. His failure to offer a clear alternative to the Tories has been damaging.
“There has also been a heavyhanded approach to party discipline, with members being suspended for no good reason. A couple of local party chairs have had their suspensions lifted in Wales, but there are still about 10 waiting to hear how their cases will be resolved. This has been very bad for morale among members.
“But in the context of the Senedd election, I am optimistic about Labour’s chances.
“I think most people in Wales have respect for Mark Drakeford. I can’t be sure how many seats Labour will win, but I don’t think as many will change hands as some are predicting, and believe it likely that after the votes are counted Labour will still be the biggest party by some margin.”
Jeff Jones, a former Labour leader of Bridgend council, is shocked that the party found itself well behind the Conservatives in a Britain-wide poll last weekend.
On Saturday, as Prince Philip’s funeral takes place, party members have been urged to participate in a period of “reflection”.
Mr Jones said: “They should be reflecting on the fact that Labour is nine points behind the worst government in modern times.
“When Starmer stood for the leadership he told the party that he knew who he was. The problem is that Joe Public hasn’t a clue who he is.
“People want politicians they can believe, and they don’t take kindly to people if they don’t think they’re being sincere.
“You just have to look at Starmer’s position on Brexit. For three years, from 2016 to 2019, he was telling us that Brexit would be disastrous for the UK, and did everything he could to stop it happening.
“Now, in complete contrast, he’s not just saying we should accept the result of the referendum, but that we should rule out the possibility of rejoining the EU.
“People are asking whether he’s really in favour of the EU or of Brexit. He’s seriously damaged his credibility.
“He should stop listening to focus groups and concentrating on the ‘red wall’ seats and instead show some leadership by arguing for what he believes in. That’s the way to get respect.”
Mr Jones said there were additional reasons why Labour was doing badly in the polls.
“The public have short-term memory loss, and while an appalling number of people have died of Covid-19, that was last year,” he said.
“This year the vaccines are being rolled out and there’s the promise of a return to normality.
“Brexit is, of course, having a negative impact on the economy, but people are still concentrating on Covid.
“And the fact is that, for many, the closure of a factory because of Brexit only matters to you if you’re one of those who are losing their jobs. Otherwise, the closure might as well be happening in Hong Kong as in a nearby town.”
Alun Davies, who is defending for Labour the Blaenau Gwent seat he has represented for 10 years, said: “I’m not hearing anything negative about Keir Starmer on the doorstep. It’s quite a contrast to the critical comments I heard at the last General Election about Jeremy Corbyn.
“I am, however, hearing a lot of positive comments about Mark Drakeford, who has won the respect of many through his cautious handling of the pandemic.”
It will be interesting to see the extent to which Labour’s undoubted difficulties at a British level are reflected in Wales.
Previous devolved elections have usually been framed by Westminster politics. Next month’s Senedd election could buck the trend.
FIVE years ago, when Carwyn Jones was leading Welsh Labour, there was a concerted effort to keep Jeremy Corbyn out of Wales as much as possible during what became the final election for the National Assembly. His presence was seen as a disadvantage.
Only a year later, however, Mr Corbyn was briefly flavour of the month when Theresa May hubristically called a General Election that culminated in her losing her majority.
Two and a half years later, Mr Corbyn was once again seen as a liability and on his visits to Wales was largely despatched to seats that Labour had little chance of winning.
During the current Senedd election campaign, external visits have been scaled down because of the pandemic. But while Sir Keir Starmer may not be perceived as negatively as Mr Corbyn was in 2016 and 2019, neither does he possess the kind of cachet that Tony Blair had at the height of his popularity.
Reports suggest that he is barely mentioned on the doorstep or to telephone canvassers.
Instead, it is Mark Drakeford’s name that tends to be mentioned, often favourably.
For those who support devolution, this is a positive development.
Making judgements about who to vote for on the basis of decisions they have been involved in making is good for democracy.
It contrasts with a tendency that has been around for a long time – to show approval or disapproval for one set of politicians by rewarding or punishing party colleagues who operate at a different level of government.
Democracy works properly when those in power are held accountable for their performance, and when those who would replace them are scrutinised too.
Covid-19 has brought an unprecedented degree of attention to politics at the Senedd, and especially to Mr Drakeford, whose pronouncements about the pandemic and lockdown have made him a daily presence for many. It is entirely appropriate that an assessment of his performance during the course of the Covid crisis should have a considerable bearing on how people vote on May 6. Certainly it makes more sense to do so than to pass judgement on Sir Keir’s performance as the overall Labour leader.
Some will approve of Mr Drakeford’s approach while others will not.
There are many other actions of the Welsh Government to take a view on too.
The time to judge Sir Keir will be, most likely, in 2023 or 2024.