Scientists split on further easing of lockdown
THE job of the Covid-19 vaccination programme is not yet “done”, an immunisation expert has said as scientists are split on whether the UK Government should press ahead with the final stages of easing social restrictions later this month.
It comes as the UK reported no further deaths linked to Covid-19 for the first day since summer last year.
Professor Adam Finn, of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), said there are still many people who are vulnerable to the effects of Covid-19 as he warned “the idea that somehow the job is done is wrong”.
Experts are divided over whether the final stage of easing social restrictions should press ahead in england on June 21 amid a surge in cases of the new variant first identified in India.
Downing Street has indicated that Boris Johnson still sees nothing in the data to suggest the plan to end all legal lockdown restrictions on June 21 will need to be delayed.
In Wales, First Minister Mark Drakeford will be looking to announce further easing of restrictions on Friday. But he will also be looking carefully at infection rates.
Currently, Wales has just 58 confirmed cases of the Indian Covid variant of concern, far lower than across the border.
The hope is that Wales could enter Alert Level 1. Mr Drakeford has already indicated that this is the route the Welsh Government would be considering –however, he insisted this would only be the case if the virus remained under control.
Asked about the Prime Minister’s plans amid warnings over the spread of the Indian variant, a No.10 spokesman said: “The Prime Minister has said on a number of occasions that we haven’t seen anything in the data but we will continue to look at the data, we will continue to look at the latest scientific evidence as we move through June towards June 21.”
Prof Finn, from the University of Bristol, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “There’s vulnerability across the country. The idea that somehow the job is done is wrong.
“We’ve still got a lot of people out there who’ve neither had this virus... nor yet been immunised, and that’s why we’re in a vulnerable position right now.”
He told LBC that pressing ahead with the easing of restrictions on June 21 “may be a bad decision”.
Professor Ravi Gupta, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said a delay of a few weeks could have a significant impact on Britain’s battle against the pandemic and recommended it should be made clear to the public that it would be a temporary measure based on the surge in cases of the new variant.
“Even a month delay could have a big impact on the eventual outcome of this,” Prof Gupta told ITV’s Good Morning Britain.
Pat Cullen, acting general secretary and chief executive of the Royal College of Nursing, urged ministers to watch the data, adding: “As the NHS starts the road to recovery, now is the time to take cautious steps and not take an unchecked leap to freedom.”
However, Robert Dingwall, professor of sociology at Nottingham Trent University, said it was important to press ahead with the June 21 easing from a societal point of view.
He told Times Radio: “I personally don’t see any case for delay ... from a societal point of view, I think it’s really important that we go ahead on June 21 and I’ve not really seen anything in the data that would lead me to doubt that as a proposition on the evidence to date.
“I think we need to recognise the way in which levels of fear and anxiety in the population have been amplified over the last 15 months or so.
“We’ve got to look at the collateral damage in terms of untreated cancers, untreated heart conditions, all of the other things that people suffer from. We’ve got to think about the impact of economic damage that would be caused by further periods of delay and uncertainty.
“What we see at the moment, I think, is really a preview of what it means to live with Covid as an endemic infection – these waves will come, they will pass through; there will be high levels of mild infections in the community for periods of time, a handful of people may be seriously ill, even fewer may die.
“But that’s what happens with respiratory viruses and we’ve lived with 30-odd respiratory viruses for since forever.”
He added: “By the time we get to June 21, everybody who is in the nine priority groups or the highest risk will have had both jabs and would have had a period of time to consolidate the immunity.
“What are we going on with is really running into younger age groups who are intrinsically much lower risk. Many of the scientists who’ve been talking over the weekend simply haven’t adjusted their expectations to understand that – (for these people) Covid is a mild illness in the community.”
The UK Government’s former chief scientific adviser said ministers need more data before they can make a final decision.
“We need to substitute speculation for scientific data that’s the truth of the matter, as everyone has said in the last few days, the situation is very delicately balanced with some three sets of moving parts,” Professor Sir Mark Walport told BBC Breakfast.
“Firstly, we have got a new more transmissible variant, of that there is no doubt, though we don’t know exactly how much more transmissible.
“Secondly, there’s been a change in behaviour following the relaxation of measures on May 17 and the effects of that will just be starting to come through.
“Thirdly, we’ve got a vaccination programme that is very successful, but with a lot of people that still need
both their second dose of vaccine and vaccination from scratch.
“I’m afraid that weeks before the Prime Minister has to make the difficult decision it is going to be necessary to bring in the data.”
Asked if the nation is in the foothills of another wave, he added: “I hope not, but it’s not impossible.”
Across the UK almost three-quarters (74.8%) of the adult population has had their first Covid jab, with almost half (48.5%) having had their second.
On Monday, 3,383 lab-confirmed cases were confirmed in the UK – the sixth day in a row that 3,000 or more cases had been recorded.
One further death was reported within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test, according to Government data.
It comes as the EU’s ambassador to the UK has raised hopes that those wanting to holiday in Europe later this summer will find the process easier.
Joao Vale de Almeida told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I hope many, many British citizens will come to our countries and I hope many EU citizens
will visit the UK.”
He said the bloc was hoping a digital Covid certificate would pave the way for greater ability to travel.
“We’re hopeful that some time later in the summer, around July, we could be in a situation where travel and tourism will be made a lot easier,” he added.
It comes as new data from the Office for National Statistics show a steep rise in healthcare expenditure as a result of the pandemic.
The ONS said current healthcare expenditure in 2020 is estimated at £269 billion, a cash increase of 20% on 2019 - the largest increase on record back to 1997.
The share of GDP attributed to healthcare rose to about 12.8% in 2020, up from 10.2% in 2019.
Jonathan Athow, deputy national statistician for economic statistics for the ONS, said: “The unprecedented effects of the pandemic have seen spending on health rise at a rate not seen in modern times.”