Climate change – and how it could affect you
The eyes of the world are focused on Glasgow and the Cop26 summit where world leaders are aiming to thrash out a meaningful deal to slow the effects of climate change. Welsh affairs editor Will Hayward takes a look at 10 ways global warming could impact on our lives Losing homes to the ocean and expensive sea defences
Large areas of Wales could be left underwater if the ice caps continue to melt.
The populations of Cardiff, Swansea and Newport would be vulnerable to a 1.1m sea level rise.
Cardiff has already been identified as one of the most at-risk cities in the world because of rising oceans.
But in a way Cardiff may fare better than other, less populated, parts of Wales. Wales’ Climate Change Minister, Julie James, has already indicated that many areas of the Welsh coast will simply be too expensive to defend and will be allowed to be claimed by the sea.
More extreme flooding, more often
Remember the extreme flooding that devastated much of the Valleys in 2020? Well this is going to happen more frequently, and the storms are going to be more severe.
We are already seeing major flooding events happening more often. This is only going to accelerate as we see wetter summers and warmer winters.
The Welsh Government has recently introduced new planning rules that mean developers can’t build in areas with flooding risk in the future.
Extreme heat
There is a lot of talk about making homes more insulated to save energy, but another key issue with global warming is that it will be a lot, well, warmer.
The frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events may also increase in future depending on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
At the moment we will get a summer’s day above 400C once every 100 to 300 years. But some believe this could become much more regular, occurring once every three and a half years by 2100.
Heatwaves are likely to spark increasing heat-related mortality, heat stroke, and heat exhaustion indoors.
In Wales, heat-related deaths could increase from a baseline of 2.4 per 100,000 people per year now to 6.5 per 100,000 by the 2050s. This is essentially more than a doubling of risk – and this isn’t the worst-case scenario forecast.
Coal tips slipping and mine shaft ‘blowout’
There are more than 2,000 coal tips in Wales, predominantly in the south Wales valleys, of which 294 have been identified as “highrisk”.
A recent Climate Change Com
mittee report points out that with “annual mean rainfall increasing in Wales, especially in south Wales, climate change may increase the risk of future slope failures”.
The report points to subsidence linked to past mining activities following periods of heavy rain being another key risk.
They point to an incident when Skewen was flooded after a mine shaft blowout caused by water building up and collapse which flooded the village following Storm Christoph earlier this year.
Power shortages and infrastructure issues
As we have already seen, when there is heavy rainfall or a heatwave, the UK is simply not adapted to deal with extreme weather.
The Climate Change Committee report reads: “The vulnerability of the power grid to flooding, storms and lack of cooling water is also highlighted with the impact of future blackouts likely to be even more severe with cars and home heating becoming increasingly electrified.”
It also identifies threats to our water supplies. They point out that, although Wales has not suffered a drought which impacts water supply since the 1970s, there are other issues that may arise including:
Contamination of private water supplies and increased vulnerability to dry, warmer weather;
risks to health from contact with bathing water (sea, lakes, and rivers) and harmful algal blooms;
damage to industrial infrastructure leading to a chemical release; and
flooding of contaminated land and historical landfill sites related to dispersed pollution.
More invasive species and pests
As temperatures rise it will become easier for animals and plants from abroad to establish themselves in Wales.
Invasive species can disrupt key ecosystem functions, threatening individual species or whole habitats, and can severely impact a range of ecosystem services including agriculture and forestry, causing economic damage.
Pests and pathogens are more difficult and costly to manage once established and widespread across a region.
In recent years warmer winters have had a clear influence on outbreaks and incursions of some pests and pathogens in the UK and they are increasing.
Decline in our native species
On top of this there is the serious decline in Wales’ native species.
The State of Nature 2019 report revealed that of the 3,902 species assessed in Wales, 73 have been lost already, with birds like turtle doves and corn buntings now gone from our skies. A further 666 species are threatened with extinction in Wales. This is likely to accelerate with climate change.
Nature presenter Iolo Williams recently described Wales’ countryside as a “green desert”.
Wildfires
At the moment in Wales, wildfires are not really a massive problem. The ones we do see are usually man-made and tend not to spread over great distances.
However, as summers get hotter with less rainfall they could start becoming a serious issue.
We all saw the impact wildfires have had in California and Australia in recent years.
According to the authors of this report, Wales can expect them to become a major issue if global heating proceeds unchecked.
Food shortages
We have already seen some food shortages or price rises due to Brexit and Covid-19.
This is likely to get much worse with climate change.
A third of global food production will be at risk by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at their current rate, according to researchers at Aalto University in Finland.
Displacement of millions of people
If we thought the volume of people fleeing conflict in Syria was hard to do deal with, then we are in for a serious shock once climate change gets going.
A recent UN report made for very grim reading. It said: “On current climate change scenarios, a certain amount of forced climate migration is ‘locked in’. But how much depends on the international community’s mitigation and adaptation plans now. It is clear that the international community has to face up to the prospect of large-scale displacement caused by climate change. There is a need for international recognition of the problem, a better understanding of its dimensions and a willingness to tackle it.”