Free meals plan would cost £90m plus costs of kitchens
The agreement between the Welsh Government and Plaid Cymru announced this week contains a lot of spending pledges, including free meals for primary school children. But is it affordable, asks Political editor-at-large Martin Shipton
PLANS to offer free school meals to all primary school children in Wales would cost £90m before the capital costs of extending canteens, kitchens and staff to provide them, an Institute for Fiscal Studies economist has calculated.
The practicalities of providing the space to cook and serve the meals could also take up to three years, IFS research fellow Luke Sibieta said.
Further plans to offer free childcare to every two-year-old in Wales are also likely to stretch to millions and it is not clear if there are enough child carers to cover all of this age group.
The National Day Nurseries Association (NDNA) Cymru has warned there must be sufficient funding, recruitment and pay.
While the Welsh Government has announced “immediate and radical” action in a series of bold proposals in its three-year deal with Plaid Cymru, it has not said when the changes will happen, how much they will cost and how they’ll be paid for.
But it made it clear that funding was there.
Announcing the plans on Monday, the Welsh Government said: “Funding has been put in place as part of the Co-operation Agreement and will be reflected in the draft budget, when it is published in December.”
Plaid Cymru members will vote on the deal on Saturday.
If passed, it will start on December 1 but any changes are unlikely to be seen imminently, with significant financial and practical issues still to be hammered out.
More money is expected for Wales from Westminster in next month’s budget, but the reform plans are easier said than done.
Guto Ifan, from Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, said increases in the Welsh budget meant reforms could now be funded but could take the three years of the agreement to implement.
“A key part of the context behind the Cooperation Agreement is the significant improvement in the outlook for the Welsh budget since the election.
“As a result of UK Government announcements since September, we estimate the Welsh Government’s day-to-day spending budget next year (2022-23) will be around £1.6 billion higher than expected based on the UK Government’s spending plans from March 2021.
“Excluding one-off Covid-19 funding this year, the budget is set to grow by £2.9 billion a year by 2024-25 in cash terms.
“While much of this increase will need to address the legacy of the pandemic on public services – particularly on the NHS – there is now more scope for ambitious reforms and expanding some areas of public services.
“The agreement proposes significant new spending, namely: on free school meals for all primary school children; on expansion of childcare for two-year-olds; and a National Care Service free at the point of need. These policies now look more achievable within the outlook for the Welsh budget over the next three years.”
On school meals there are more than 272,000 primary school pupils in Wales, with around one in five of those already eligible for free school meals, which cost around £2.20 to £2.80, with prices varying between councils.
There would be an economy of scale providing blanket FSM and administration costs would theoretically be lower, but there would be an added capital cost needed to extend school kitchens and lunch areas. This could all take years to plan and pay for.
The policy would bring Wales in line with England – which introduced universal free school meals for infant age children up to Year 2 in 2014 – and extend it to those up to the last year of primary.
Bodies representing head teachers welcomed the plan but said extending free school meals must be separately funded, with school budgets already stretched.
“The free school meal money must come from Welsh Government. It’s going to be a huge amount and it would swallow school budgets in one gulp,” said Laura Doel, director of the National Association of Headteachers Cymru.
Applying the methods used for allocating the grant for universal infant free school meals in England to Wales, IFS research fellow Luke Sibieta estimated providing universal primary school meals at a cost of around £2.50 would cost the Welsh Government around £80m-£90m and said a three-year timescale seemed “reasonable”.
He warned there are “huge caveats around this figure” as it doesn’t include capital/refurbishment costs, and the cost of providing free meals was going to go up anyway because of transitional protection for Universal Credit claimants.
The actual cost will also be shaped by the level of take-up. The calculation is based on the nearly 90% takeup for infants in England and the cost per meal of £2.50.
Either way, schools can’t fund it from existing budgets, Mr Sibieta said.
“Schools can’t do this with their own money. It wouldn’t be possible.
When England introduced free infant meals a grant to fund it was introduced.
“But the main challenge England faced was not funding but finding space for universal infant meals. To do this you need more kitchen and canteen space and more staff.
“It’s not just the price of the meal, there is capital spending and planning.
“Three years seems a sensible timeframe as they will need to consult with schools and local education authorities on this.
“It’s not surprising to say this without saying how they will fund it.
“It would be easier if they had said how they’ll fund it all but clearly they are confident or they would not have announced it. So I suspect the money is there.”
While they welcomed free meals for primary pupils, teaching unions are concerned about how it will be funded, and also how plans to extend the school day and change the school year will affect pay and conditions of staff.
Changing school term dates and school hours is also in the agreement and also has significant cost and time implications, trade unions representing teachers said.
“In terms of school day reform, which is arguably much more complex than changing the terms, pay and conditions, wraparound services like after-school clubs, school transport, catering etc would all be thrown into the mix but crucially there needs to be some evidence to go down this route and as yet we’ve not seen any,” said Mrs Doel.
Eithne Hughes, director of the Association of School and College Leaders Cymru, shared these concerns.
“We did not know about this before it was announced on Monday,” she said.
“Hungry children can’t learn so that (universal primary meals) is a welcome priority but it does need to be fully funded.”
She said plans to reform the school year and day were “vague and sketchy” and called for more detail.
“Is it about extending contractual hours and will it affect conditions of service for teachers?
“They are going to reform term
dates , that was in Labour’s manifesto and now this co-operation agreement. Welsh Government needs to do this through the correct process. That could take years.”
Purnima Tanuku, chief executive of the National Day Nurseries Association (NDNA) Cymru, gave a cautious welcome to the free childcare offer for twoyear-olds but said the staff and funding for them were needed.
“We know that access to high-quality early education and care can make a huge difference to children’s life chances, so it is welcome to see that childcare remains a priority in this agreement. However, we need to make sure that the system is working for everyone,” she said. “The availability of high-quality childcare and early education in Wales is absolutely crucial for both working families and children’s outcomes. This pandemic has shown just how crucial early learning and childcare is to the national infrastructure.
“Nurseries and childcare settings have operated throughout the pandemic but have faced challenges with absences, staffing, recruitment and increased cleaning measures.
“Government funding rates need to keep pace with these increasing costs, including the national minimum and living wages as well.
“Any political promises to increase offers to parents must be fully costed to be deliverable. Without the right funding, nurseries will become unsustainable and won’t be there to support families.”
Welsh Conservative education spokeswoman Laura Anne Jones MS said more detail was urgently needed.
“The Labour-led government must make clear it will be directly funding all these policies, reverse its previous cuts and level up funding in our teachers and schools so that the next generation in Wales has the best possible chance to reach their full potential,” she said.
“At the recent UK Budget, the Chancellor delivered the biggest-ever block grant to Wales with an extra £2.5 billion per year.
“For every £1 spent on schools in England, the Labour Government in Cardiff Bay receives £1.20 to spend here – yet each pupil in Wales is somehow receiving £100 less for their education than students across the border.”
IN FEBRUARY 2021 Plaid Cymru proposed in a Senedd debate that all primary school pupils should receive a free lunch.
The suggestion went further than Welsh Labour’s most left-wing MP, Cynon Valley’s Beth Winter, who had argued for free school meals for all children aged seven and under, as well as those without recourse to public funds such as asylum seekers.
But Labour MSs voted against Plaid’s motion after Finance Minister Rebecca Evans said further expansion of the scheme would have an impact on eligibility for other forms of funding, making it prohibitively expensive.
She said: “The latest calculations now indicate that the additional cost would be between £85m and £100m, even before taking account of the impact of the pandemic.
“Increasing the eligibility of free school meals also has a knock-on effect to other policy areas.
“A rough estimate is that this policy could cost an additional £350m a year. It simply doesn’t wash that this money is found from the additional funding this year’s budget contains.”
Now, nine months later, the Welsh Government has signed up to a deal with Plaid that indicates a change of mind.
All primary school children shall, after all, receive a free school meal.
How can such a U-turn be possible? Has more money miraculously been found or will there be budget cuts in other policy areas?
The Welsh Government, after all, only has finite resources at its disposal.
For now, we’re not being told. When I asked the Welsh Government for an explanation, I received a taciturn response.
A spokesman said: “More information on this will come in the budget on December 20. For the moment the latest is what was included in the press release, which is copied below.”
The press release said: “Funding has been put in place as part of the Co-operation Agreement and will be reflected in the draft budget, when it is published in December.”
Yet for all the spending pledges in the deal, the biggest commitment of all continues to overshadow everything else – even though it was barely mentioned in the published agreement.
Discerning readers of yesterday’s Western Mail will have noticed a huge contrast in tone between articles on two successive pages.
In the first, Plaid leader Adam Price waxed lyrical about the positive policies the deal his party has reached with Labour will see put into action. His article was headlined: “Common ground for Wales’ common good”.
But a turn of the page took us into more negative territory.
An article headlined “This is not sustainable … the NHS is harming patients”, reported the comments of emergency medicine consultant Dr Pete Williams, who said current pressures on the health service were leading to patients waiting dangerously long times to be seen.
The NHS already takes the largest chunk of the Welsh Government’s budget, but it requires more.
In April 2021 Cardiff University’s Wales Fiscal Analysis unit published a report which stated: “It will likely take several years to clear the backlog in elective care waiting lists after the pandemic, especially if the sharp fall in referrals signals significant pent-up demand.
“Making several assumptions about the extent of returning patients and NHS activity next year, we estimate restoring waiting lists to pre-Covid levels could cost between £152m and £292m a year over a fouryear period from 2022-23.
“In our baseline scenario, there is a significant projected funding gap between projected health consequentials from the UK Government and funding pressures, of over £740m in 2022-23.
“This funding shortfall would average £360m a year (in cash terms) between 2023-24 and 2025-26.
“Future NHS funding pressures are highly uncertain, and our projections are highly sensitive to the assumptions made.
“However, likely post-pandemic pressures and current UK Government spending plans suggest tough decisions and trade-offs for the next Welsh Government, balancing NHS funding pressures against pressures elsewhere in the budget and the potential use of devolved tax powers.”
Funding the NHS, with constant mounting pressures, is a daunting challenge in itself.
But the agreement between the Welsh Government and Plaid contains a host of other commitments, including one to bring forward the net zero target from 2050 to 2035.
The only acknowledgement that meeting the across-the-board commitments may be tough comes in a clause of the agreement which states that the Welsh Government will “work with the Wales Governance
Centre, the Office for Budget Responsibility and others to understand devolved public finances and the future needs of Welsh public services.
“We will look for new ways to address any future funding gaps, grow our tax base and consider the funding implications of any recommendations from the Constitutional Commission.”
Until the draft Welsh Government Budget is published days before Christmas, we don’t know the timescale for taking the new spending commitments forward.
Governments – and in this case their third-party partners – can make grand announcements six months into a five-year term, but only implement the most costly policies in the final year before the next election.
They’ll still be able to claim they’ve delivered what they promised, even though many potential beneficiaries will have missed out in the meantime.
We may also be looking at the possibility of the Welsh Government dipping into its reserves – something that Plaid has advocated before – although judgements will have to be made about the prudence of doing so.
In the absence of greater financial candour from the Welsh Government, I asked for clarity on the school meals issue from Plaid Cymru.
I received a statement from Sioned Williams, Plaid’s Social Justice and Equalities spokesperson.
While not being prepared to divulge any detailed costings, Ms Williams said: “The pledge to offer free school meals for all primary pupils in Wales is affordable, deliverable and, most importantly, transformational when it comes to tackling poverty in our communities.
“Having voiced their opposition to and voted against this policy in the past, I am pleased that Labour have now shifted their position. Plaid Cymru will continue to press the case for free school meals for all pupils in Wales.”
This may be cynical, but I can’t help thinking there’s a mismatch between the positivity espoused in the agreement between the two parties and the huge financial challenges facing NHS Wales because of a lack of resources.
When the Welsh Government’s draft Budget for 2022-23 is published, the people of Wales deserve a frank explanation about the affordability of the promises that have been made.