Diplomacy needed in Ukraine crisis

WHILE people in the UK have been understandably preoccupied with continuing disclosures relating to the “Partygate” scandal, tension has been mounting on the other side of Europe over a potential invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

This is not a crisis that has arisen suddenly. Ukraine has been in a state of high alert since 2014, when Russian-speaking separatists in the east of the country seized control of a region including the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, and Russia annexed Crimea. Border clashes are quite regular, although until now they have fallen short of fullscale war.

But there has been a huge buildup of troops on the Russian side of the frontier, fuelling speculation that President Putin intends to mount an invasion.

The situation is complicated. Ukraine is not a member of Nato and western countries do not have defence pacts with it.

So there will be no ultimatums issued threatening a military response if an invasion occurs.

Instead – and this seems almost bizarre in the circumstances – Nato troops would be deployed in the Baltic states in the event of hostilities breaking out in Ukraine.

Looking at how realistic some of the potential scenarios being put forward are, it is difficult to imagine what Mr Putin would hope to achieve by launching a full-scale invasion and sending troops in to seize Ukraine’s capital Kyiv. He would meet bitter military resistance as well as considerable civilian opposition after an occupation.

It’s far more likely that his aim would be to seize a larger slice of the eastern part of the country, hoping to link up the Donetsk industrial region with Crimea.

The western countries need to be firm and united in their response.

If they are unwilling to intervene militarily in Ukraine, they should be explicit about the sanctions that would be imposed if any kind of incursion takes place – and be prepared to carry out that threat.

At the very least, this could result in an interruption to energy supplies, as Ukraine itself is dependent on Russia for gas.

The danger posed by a potential destabilisation of eastern Europe should not be underestimated.

Mr Putin has demonstrated on multiple occasions that he is a disrupter but he must not be allowed the leeway to cause any more disruption.

What’s needed is some hardheaded diplomacy – and quickly.