Flood model has Cardiff most at risk
CARDIFF is the local authority area at most risk of flooding as a result of climate change in Britain, new research shows.
Across Britain an estimated 1.09 million properties are currently at risk of inland or rainfall-driven flooding.
That is forecast to rise to 1.35 million by 2050, putting 250,000 extra properties at risk due to the impact of global warming.
Bristol-based flood-mapping expert Fathom’s model is the first to use climate change data – as opposed to purely historic data – to predict towns and cities most at risk of flood.
More than £214m will be spent over the next three years in Wales to help manage the increasingly violent flooding associated with climate change.
Fathom’s mapping calculates that by 2050 a total 33,000 (5.1%) of properties in Cardiff will be at risk of flooding. The next two worst affected local authority areas are Windsor and Maidenhead.
The data comes from a national risk model which factors in the impact of future climate change when predicting flood hazard for 2030, 2050 and 2070.
Creating the UK flood maps, Fathom said it combined coverage of every river and stretch of coastline with the latest flood risk science.
Professor Paul Bates, chair of hydrology at Bristol University and co-founder of the company, said the UK must improve forward planning for extreme weather events. The risk of building on flood plains should also be made clearer, he warned.
“Flood hazards and their impact are projected to increase in many regions around the globe. Whilst the UK benefits from a long history of flood risk mapping and expertise, flooding can still cost the economy billions of pounds each year,” he said.
“In a warming world, the UK can expect to see more extreme flood events like coastal and flash flooding.”
Prof Bates, a world-leading authority on flood risk, who is also a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union and a Royal Society Wolfson Research Scholar, has spent his research career on the development and application of computational flood models.
He said it was vital to understand future hazards and forward plan.
“The ability to model future flood scenarios will provide a more in-depth understanding of changing hazards.
“Using this data more widely would enable developers to make informed decisions around future urban development, as well as identify properties that exist within high-risk zones. In turn, this would combat the increased potential impact of flooding.”
Prof Bates was made a CBE for services to flood risk management in 2019.