Plaid Cymru politics could pale amid shift in Wales’ population
Recently published census statistics may have interesting – and not necessarily welcome – implications for Welsh politics and the independence debate, argues political editor-at-large Martin Shipton
THE 2021 Census has confirmed that population – and political power – in Wales is gravitating more and more to the south east of the country.
Newport saw the biggest percentage increase in its population, with a rise of 9.5% since the last Census in 2011.
Cardiff’s population increased by 4.7%, Bridgend’s by 4.5% and the Vale of Glamorgan’s by 4.3%.
While Bridgend falls within the Senedd’s South Wales West region, it is at the eastern extremity of it and is increasingly a dormitory borough for those working in Cardiff.
By contrast the areas with population declines include the Welsh-language heartlands of Ceredigion (-5.8%), Gwynedd (-3.7%) and Anglesey (-1.2%)
It’s fair to say that Carmarthenshire – another county with a high proportion of Welsh-speakers – had an overall population increase of 2.2%.
Nevertheless, it’s safe to conclude that the major growth area is southeast Wales, while it’s the Welsh-language heartlands that are undergoing a decline.
This week former Conservative secretary of state for Wales Stephen Crabb, who represents a seat in Pembrokeshire, made a speech in which he bemoaned the population decline in Ceredigion, saying: “There is a real problem when we see a significant drop in the population in places such as Ceredigion – those Welsh-speaking communities in western Wales.
“That does not bode well for the future.
“We have parts of Wales with declining populations; overlay the ageing demographic, and that points to some deep-seated underlying challenges.
“It should be the ambition of us all, whatever our political colours, to address that.”
When a local authority undergoes a population decline, it suffers negative consequences. The grant it receives from the Welsh Government goes down proportionately, making it more difficult to pay for local public services. But there are wider political implications too.
Places that undergo population decline are likely to have fewer employment opportunities for those who remain, creating a downward spiral with increasing numbers leaving for larger communities elsewhere.
In some cases that entails moving to Welsh cities, but others will relocate for career purposes further afield.
The reconfiguration of the population in Wales may also lead to changes in voting patterns, posing a potentially huge challenge to Plaid Cymru in particular.
A first-language speaker who feels inclined to vote for Plaid may do so in their home town or village in the Welsh-language heartland, but may be less likely to do so if they live in a Labour-Conservative marginal seat in south-east Wales.
But the lack of Plaid activity in south-east Wales is also a major factor.
In May’s council elections the party found it very difficult to scrape candidates together in south-east Wales in particular.
In Newport – the local authority with the biggest population increase in Wales – Plaid fielded just two council candidates, neither of whom was elected.
Meanwhile in neighbouring Monmouthshire it didn’t put forward a single candidate.
In Cardiff Plaid Cymru had a local pact with the Green Party and they fought most of the available seats together under the slogan Common Ground. Just two got elected.
In its core Welsh-language heartland areas it consolidated its support and now has overall majorities on four councils – Anglesey, Gwynedd, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire.
It made progress in Wrexham and is now the junior partner in a coalition with Independents in Neath Port Talbot.
But in the crucial south east of the country it is close to being invisible.
The lack of Plaid activists and elected representatives also doesn’t bode well for the independence movement.
If Plaid can’t get traction in the most populous parts of Wales, what prospect is there for those who want to win an independence referendum?
Many of those extra people who represent the 9.5% increase in the size of Newport will have moved from the Bristol area. Some will have been persuaded to do so by the scrapping of Severn Bridge tolls and cheaper housing on this side of the border.
Without seeking to be disrespectful, many will not be interested in Welsh politics or the fact that there is a party they could vote for whose name in English means the Party of Wales.
They are likely to import English voting habits and it may be asking too much to expect many of them to vote for Welsh independence at a future referendum.
Plaid Cymru and the independence campaign have a lot of persuading to do.
Meanwhile the likelihood is that Plaid will become even more of a party for the Welsh-language heartlands – something its leaders know will not take it to power, except perhaps as a junior partner to Labour.
If Plaid retrenches to the heartlands, non-Welsh-speakers who are sceptical about supporting the party will surely become even more so.
Delyth Jewell is a Plaid Cymru MS who represents the Senedd region of South East Wales.
She takes the point about the changing demographics of Wales but remains optimistic that by adopting an inclusive, community-based approach Plaid can win new support.
Ms Jewell also accepts that the party has had a shortage of local activists in many communities.
She said: “Sometimes it’s been a case of long-standing activists passing away, and there have also been examples where young activists have moved elsewhere to study or get work. I agree that we need to increase our numbers of party volunteers in the community.”
Responding to the particular challenge in her part of Wales, she said: “I’ve always thought it important to work with other parties across the aisle, but I want an independent Wales for the benefit of all of the people who live here.
“I’m not interested in independence for the sake of it and believe we should be arguing for the real benefits it could bring rather than getting bogged down with constitutional questions, as it can be easy to do.
“I’m a democratic socialist and the vision of Wales I have is one based on equality and social justice, with strong community values. Independence isn’t a threat to anyone.
“This is something I will continue to argue for and I hope more and more people see these as values worth supporting.”
Delyth Jewell and others like her are undoubtedly sincere in wanting a better Wales – and in seeing independence as the way to achieve that. Whether, given the demographic and logistical challenges, they succeed in achieving their aims remains very much open to question.