Budget devil will be in the detail today

AT ONE time the contents of the Budget were closely guarded secrets right up until the Chancellor made his speech.

In 1947 Hugh Dalton, who was born in Neath, had to resign from the post after giving titbits to a journalist as he walked into the Commons chamber.

These days, however, it’s commonplace for contents of the Budget to be widely trailed in advance.

To a large degree this reflects the fact that the state of the UK economy is now a constant source of debate and angst, with the ideological position of the government well rehearsed and understood.

When Jeremy Hunt delivers his Budget speech today, there are unlikely to be any major surprises.

We know that he will extend the government’s current scheme to keep down energy prices. This will be welcome, although it will fall far short of action taken in other European countries.

Probably the most interesting new item in the Budget will relate to changes to the welfare system aimed at making it easier for people who have been sick to transition from being benefit recipients to employment.

Under existing arrangements, which have been in existence for many years, there is often a disincentive in place that creates hurdles for benefit claimants wanting to return to work.

Many are unwilling to take jobs because doing so would disqualify them from receiving benefits.

As part of his drive to increase economic growth, it is said that Mr Hunt will change the rules to make it easier for those who have been sick to return to work.

The devil, of course, will be in the detail – and the likelihood is that some announcements will be more welcome than others.

There will be concerns that people who are disabled or otherwise sick will have pressure put on them to take a job when they are not fit to do so.

Previous Conservative governments since 2010 have certainly been culpable in this respect and there is apprehension within vulnerable communities about what may be in the offing now.

Another measure in the Budget will be welcomed more easily: an increase in childcare subsidies is to be introduced for those on benefits, making it more manageable for parents to return to work.

Overall, though, Mr Hunt’s package is likely to be an unsatisfactory mix of the punitive and the encouraging.