House prices up – despite uncertainty

House prices look set to confound pessimistic forecasters, according to a leading south West estate agent.

Nationwide’s house price index showed property prices rose 0.3% nationally in November, up from no growth at all in the previous month. That points to greater resilience in the market than economists realise, says Simon Cooper of Stags.

House prices look set to confound pessimistic forecasters, according to a leading estate agent in the South West.

The latest house price index from the Nationwide Building Society showed prices rose 0.3% nationally in November, compared with 0% growth in the previous month.

The annual rate climbed to 1.9% from 1.6% – compared to the 1% that the building society forecast at the start of 2018.

That points to greater resilience in the market than many economists realise, says Simon Cooper of Stags.

“An annual figure of 2% feels about right for the South West,” said Mr Cooper, a senior partner based in Exeter.

He said there had to be some caution at a single month’s figure, particularly at a time of year when the market is slow and the number of transactions is small.

However the fundamentals were good, with interest rates low and not expected to rise sharply and income levels continuing to increase, he said.

“The market is quite resilient, despite the negative talk in the media,” said Mr Cooper.

Economists have said that uncertainty about the future and concerns about Brexit are having an effect in slowing price rises.

The Bank of England said this week that house prices could fall 30% in the worstcase scenario following a nodeal Brexit.

But Mr Cooper said: “I think most people who understand the property market are rather surprised by some of the Draconian comments this week about what could happen in a worst-case Brexit scenario.

“House prices only fall dramatically when people cannot afford to buy or they have to sell because they cannot afford to live in that property any more. A large proportion of people in the Westcountry are not in that position – they have a small mortgage or no mortgage and would not have to move.”

Mr Cooper said that in the South West the low and middle end of the market was “quite buoyant”.

The highest-vale homes were more affected by the situation in London and the South Estate, where prices have fallen because of affordability issues.

“Most of the houses at the top end of the market in the Westcountry are bought by people outside the region. If those people are not buying, prices can be quite weak.

“Most agents in the Westcountry would probably agree with that,” he said.

‘The market is quite resilient, despite negative media talk’

Simon Cooper of Stags