Taking the hesitant first steps out of pandemic lockdown

WE continue to inch towards normality. This week’s small announcements include being allowed to meet in larger numbers outdoors. On the retail front, next week sees the reopening of car showrooms and the return of outdoor markets.

On the leisure side, lifeguard cover is today back on eight beaches in the South West – seven in Cornwall, one in Devon – and on Monday education begins to get back to where it was before the pandemic began.

There is no prospect of lockdown suddenly ending. We were told that when the restrictions began on March 23.

There is good reason: until the R number, the rate at which the infection spreads, is comfortably below one, progress will continue to be slow, despite the continuing fall in the numbers of people being admitted to hospitals with Covid-19 and the welcome drop in the number of further deaths from the disease.

The NHS has coped, just, thanks to drastic measures such as the scrapping of non-emergency surgery, a small army of returning ex-staff and the dedication of all who work within the service.

The much-herald test and track programme has arrived with rather more fanfare that it deserved. Not that this weapon in the war is not important. Far from it: catching localised outbreaks and suppressing them rapidly by testing those with symptoms, tracing those who have been in contact with them and isolating both groups is absolutely vital.

It is just that the system will not be fully functioning until the end of June. So, one cheer rather than three is appropriate.

We also know that the other key weapon needed to win this fight against the coronavirus, a vaccine, is still months away, at best.

We can expect more, small hesitant steps, such as Monday’s return of three year groups to primary schools. The long-drawn-out process that has made this possible; preparations within schools, protecting staff and children and reassuring all, including parents, shows how complex is the process of easing lockdown.

Nor can we be certain that there is only one direction of travel. If the R number rises, and outbreaks occur, we can expect whichever part of the economy has opened up to close down again to suppress the spread.

The tourism industry, so vital to the South West, is still probably several weeks away from real progress. The long discussions over how the hospitality sector can cope are an example of the challenges ahead. Opening up an economy can happen bit by bit, but it does not work that way for businesses such as pubs.

Landlords say partial opening, such as using outdoors space only, is not viable – costs will outweigh income. Social distancing is another hot issue for all businesses which depend on large numbers of customers. The hospitality sector is politely and patiently asking for the two-metre rule to be looked at again, with the suggestion that the UK follow many other countries in relaxing the protective measure to one metre.

There is one other big unknown which will determine how the economy and society will recover: the behaviour and confidence of the public. We watch and wait and hope.