R VALUE ‘IS ABOVE 1 IN THE SOUTH WEST’

THE coronavirus infection rate in the South West is at the crucial threshold at which the outbreak will continue to spread, according to two university studies.

The Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine has the region’s R value at 1 while the Cambridge University analysis has the South West at 1 or slightly above.

The R number indicates how many people catch coronavirus from each infected person – if it is below 1 the virus gradually dies out; if above it continues to spread.

However while cases in the region are apparently more likely to be passed on to another person, the South West remains the part of England with the lowest number of cases, 7,766, and the lowest number per head of population, 138.9 for every 100,000 people.

The Department for Health and Social Care has said that the regional R values put out by universities are estimates. The Government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, told a briefing of journalists: “The latest R value calculation is between 0.7 and 0.9 for the UK as a whole, it may be a little bit higher in England it may be between 0.7 and 1, and there is a bit of regional variation.”

Public Health England medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle told reporters that a rise in the R value was to be expected as lockdown eases. “Our estimates show that the regional R numbers have increased although they remain below one for most of England – this is to be expected as we gradually move out of lockdown,” she said.

“It is vital that everyone continues with social distancing, practising good hand hygiene and must remain at home and order a test if they have symptoms.”

There have been no new Covid-19 deaths at any of the hospitals in Devon and Cornwall for the second day in a row, the latest data shows.