Dummy referendum will hinder real one

THIS is an instructive issue to think about. That is, what would be the impact of an illegal/illicit or “dummy” referendum on the prospects for holding a meaningful real one later on?

The proposed non approved referendum on Scottish independence is a case in point here. If the electorate think that what they are being offered will make no difference to their chances of becoming independent, then would they bother to vote at all? Because surely Westminster will veto the referendum itself stating its results are invalid. No matter the level of turnout and the overall distribution of votes cast, Westminster will be within its rights to ignore the results. Thereby having little or no impact on the political direction of Scotland’s future. But if the electorate do go out to vote to show their strength of feeling for Scottish independence for or against, then will they bother to vote a second time in the approved referendum? If a dummy referendum goes ahead does this make it more or less likely that an approved referendum will be granted in future? I surmise that holding a dummy referendum makes it less likely that a real one will be granted down the line.

A dummy referendum surely holds many risks. Other than the points above there is the risk of non support from some political parties, who will not bother to mount a campaign to mobilise their supporters one way or the other. Thereby certain sections of the electorate will be immediately disenfranchised if there is no campaign that means anything and no encouragement to vote either way. If there is a dummy referendum planned then can bona fide political parties legally mount a campaign at all? If there are limited funds as probably applies to both Labour and Conservatives in Scotland then they would not want to pay for a campaign twice. That is for the dummy as well as the possibility of a real referendum. Fairly obviously, it would make most good sense to wait for an approved referendum in principle even if in practice this is many years down the line and past the influence of this generation of SNP leaders. Most importantly, this would then be past the post Covid recovery period when a more meaningful discussion can be held about the future of the Union.

Elizabeth Smith Woodmancote