Advances in forecasting provide vital warnings of storm dangers

IT is perhaps early to be gauging the scale of the damage caused by Storm Eunice, but the signals yesterday were that the major impact was seen in the form of fallen trees and damaged roofs.

While there will be a cost to the clear-up operation, the toll on lives appears to have been limited to a single, albeit tragic case of a man’s death in Ireland.

A good deal of that is because of the work of the Exeter-based Met Office, which correctly predicted what was coming our way, and in ample time for householders to batten down the hatches, school leaders to tell pupils to stay at home, and the operators of key transport routes to take precautions.

The rare red warning by the Met Office, signalling a potential danger to life, was issued well in advance of the first gusts of wind which blew in from the Atlantic, and meant many people avoided taking journeys which might have left them in peril.

Yesterday similarities were being made between Storm Eunice and the Great Storm of 1987, not least in the repeat of a ‘sting jet’ phenomenon which is capable of causing massive damage through very high wind speeds.

The 1987 storm, which rightly or not is known for being dismissed by forecaster Michael Fish, led to the deaths of 18 people – 22 if you include those across the Channel – and uprooted millions of trees.

The total estimate damage was said to be in the region of £2bn – which now works out as more than £5.5bn – but is rightly remembered more for the loss of life which could potentially have been avoided.

It was that storm, 35 years ago, that led to the modernisation of the Met Office, and now they can rely on far better atmospheric observation data as well as computer modelling to interpret that information.

One of the key reasons that the warning of the severity of the storm was upgraded to ‘red’ for much of Devon and Cornwall was the timing of the storm.

While weather fronts which arrive in the middle of the night are no less ferocious, the vast majority of people are likely to be in their beds and out of harm’s way, provided their homes are not catastrophically damaged.

But the fact that Storm Eunice hit our region in the middle of the day meant a far greater chance of many people being out and about, in their cars or, worse, heading out deliberately to take a look at the waves or the winds.

Although the authorities cannot be found accountable for those who put themselves in harm’s way for the sake of entertainment, things like the closing of schools, cancelling or slowing trains, and preventing highsided vehicles from crossing bridges is within their remit.

But they were only given the time to do that because of the forecasting and forewarning of the Met Office, which at the time of writing seems to have meant the costs of the storm in our region at least is not being measured in the number of lives lost.

With climate change expected to bring storms in greater number and more ferocity to our region – especially in coastal areas – who knows how valuable their work could be in the longer term. We are lucky to have them.