Invasion is one thing, control is another

UKRAINE and Russia have a troubled history. In 1932-33 there was a catastrophic famine in Ukraine, which was entirely manmade, resulting from a deliberate policy directed by Jozef Stalin, the Soviet dictator. Stalin is idolised by Vladimir Putin. Known in Ukraine as the Holodomor, (in Ukrainian, ‘Murder by Starvation’), 3.9 million Ukrainians died in that famine. The UN estimated 7 to 10 million, other sources also give over 5 million.

There have been claims by the Putin controlled Russian Parliament that this was not genocide, but it clearly was. Any starving Ukrainians, fleeing to Russia, had all their belongings confiscated. So Ukrainians were definitely targeted by the Russian Soviet authorities. Alongside this was the destruction of Ukrainian books and the suppression of the Ukrainian language in schools.

These actions badly misfired, generating so much hatred and resentment that it solidified Ukrainian nationalism.

The Nazi invasion of 1941 opened up the whole situation as Soviet pressure was relieved. Ukrainian resistance which fought both the Nazis and Soviets emerged. From 1942 there was an ongoing struggle by Ukrainian nationalists that was to carry on well into the 1950s, despite the best efforts of the Russian Soviet Red Army and State.

This struggle would cost the Soviets 35,000 lives, making it twice as costly as the later Afghanistan War. This, despite the Soviet Russians arresting and deporting half a million Ukrainians to Siberia between 1944 and 1946.

The Ukrainians have long memories; 80-year-old grandmothers, remembering Stalin’s famine tactics and repression, are joining Ukrainian resistance groups, learning how to use weapons. 160,000 Russian troops are vastly outnumbered by 44 million Ukrainians, crowds of Ukrainians are stopping tanks.

Soldiers from the Ukraine were considered the best in the Soviet Union. When the Chernobyl nuclear reactor exploded, the Soviet authorities used thousands of Ukrainian soldiers to make it safe. The highly toxic reactor was too radioactive to used robots – their electronic components were rapidly fried. So Ukrainian soldiers, wearing rudimentary sheet lead “armour” held together with string, used shovels to remove the extremely dangerous radioactive debris to enable the reactor to be capped with concrete. Ukrainian soldiers are extremely tough.

Invading a country is one thing, occupying and controlling it is another. Ukrainian nationalists resisted the Soviet Russian Red Army and State for over 10 years, this with little or no support from abroad. Now there is virtually universal condemnation of the Russian invasion, with powerful opposition from both NATO and the EU, and from other countries around the world.

Russia is dependent on long, snaking pipelines to sell its gas resources which are extremely vulnerable to disruption, even to destruction.

The Ukraine was only in the

Soviet Union because of force and repression. Invading a free, sovereign nation when there is substantial opposition within Russia itself to such an invasion and the massive international opposition is a very risky gamble.

Add in the sheer length of Russia and its limited internal communications – the TransSiberian railway takes six days to get to Vladivostok. Vladivostok in the Far East, formerly part of China, is at risk. Every other Treaty port, other than Vladivostok, have been reclaimed by a resurgent China. China may use the pretext of imposing sanctions and just take back Vladivostok...

Vladimir Putin has made a huge misjudgement. Swiftly investigating and targeting his offshore assets and his cronies may save both the Ukraine and Russia from the deaths and destruction this misjudgement will cause.

Andrew Milroy Trowbridge, Wiltshire