Farming fundamental for voters – poll

RESULTS from a new poll unveiled at this week’s NFU Conference show overwhelming support from the public for British farmers and growers.

Joe Twyman, co-founder of the public opinion consultancy Deltapoll, said anyone who wants to be Prime Minister must properly value the “hearts and minds” polling power of British food, and presented the data to back it up.

Addressing delegates at the ICC in Birmingham, the former head of politics at YouGov shared new research insights into the food and farming policies that he said will influence the main parties’ prospects, both among the general public and from the farm-heavy top 100 constituencies for NFU membership.

That offered “very good news for the NFU” with the take-home message how in tune the wider population was with farming areas. “It’s clear that farming is important to everyone in this country,” he said.

“Food as an issue connects with voters in their hearts and in their heads, in a way that so many policies don’t manage. British food, food produced in this country rather than imported from overseas. And going into the next election, anyone who wishes to be Prime Minster or agriculture minister will have to keep that in mind.”

Brexit, the pandemic and the situation in Ukraine had focused public attention on food security and food standards in a way people didn’t think about 10 years ago, Mr Twyman said. “Other industries don’t have that kind of emotional connection.”

Less good news was on offer for the Conservatives. The survey of more than 4,000 people showed potential for Tory support in heartland farming constituencies was set to plummet from 58% at the 2019 election to a projected 32% this year.

As reported last week in the WMN, Labour was on track to top the rural ballot with 36% of the vote, up from 20% in 2019, with the Lib Dems holding relatively steady at 14% and a surge in voting intentions for ‘other’ parties, up from 6% in 2019 to 18%, driven by support for Reform UK.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s approval was at -37 in the overall public survey and -36 in farming constituencies and approval for Keir Starmer was a lukewarm -2 amongst the public and -8 in farm-heavy areas.

Mr Twyman wryly noted that “vacillating around net zero” was a reasonable performance for a Labour leader in the historically Conservative-favouring countryside.

The research demonstrated big fillips for NFU lobbying priorities. Some 81% of those surveyed overall, and 88% of those in farming-heavy constituencies said being able to buy British food was ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ important.

Even against a cost of living crisis, 76% of the public and 75% of those in farming constituencies said Government spending on farming should be matched, ‘increased a little’ or ‘increased a lot’, while more than nine out of ten of the general public (94%) said that support for farmers was ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ important (96% farming constituencies).

“Getting 94% of the British public to agree on anything is very difficult and unusual,” Mr Twyman said, adding that “only 90% of British public believe men and women should be paid equally”.

Elsewhere, schemes that help farmers to protect the environment while ensuring sustainable food production were backed by 80% of the general public and 81% in farming areas and 76% and 77% respectively endorsed sourcing at least half of the food for schools, prisons and hospitals from British farms.

Some 70% of the public and 76% of those in farming constituencies supported managed access to the countryside that balanced recreation and food production needs.

A new food security target was a vote winner for 69% of the public and 72% in farming areas, and there was similar backing for increases to rural policing budgets (68% all public, 74% farming constituencies) and banning imports produced to lower standards than required here (63% all public, 75% farming constituencies). On the other hand, the idea of a meat tax was supported by just 14% of GB adults.