Not right time to push on to Brexit
Put the EU exit issue to the public after the pandemic, says Don Frampton
THE viability of HS2 as a project is so large and complex an issue with numerous assumed projected costs and benefits; its merits or demerits are each littered with a host of “ifs,” “buts” and “maybes” beyond the assimilation of the average economist.
An experienced expert in econometrics would need to take into account other capital demanding expenditures, like the cost of rebuilding the NHS in buildings and staffing levels.
I am, however, reminded of American President Franklin Roosevelt’s “New Deal” projects of the 1930s – held now as worthy testimony to a good man
There is, however, one other project calculated by some to carry an even bigger resulting costs by some experts and bigger resulting benefits by others, not all of which are seen in money terms.
I refer, of course, to the project to end transition from the EU by January 2021.
There is no sign that the economic effects of Covid-19 has been calculated or that any sort of closing position has been drawn up. We have no idea what the economic support cost in business support or employment income support will be when Covid-19 might be seen as under control. There is no talk that it might be known by January 2021.
The decision to close on the EU transition period in January next year means Britain would enter into a hugely expensive project that would be on going for years affecting virtually every person and business in the UK while at the same time Covid-19 would continue as a huge drain on the exchequer.
We must also take on board terms and trading conditions that carry no guarantees of any fiscal or social benefits or gains. Every economic projection of the effect of the final exit from the EU has shown a severe downturn in our economy – and those projections were done before Covid-19 existed
Today, we have a government in a battle of containment against a virus resembling a threatening wall of water, being held back by a dam constructed of painful, economically damaging, social and economic rules we dare not take down.
The full resources of Britain are being employed in that containment and mitigation.
At the same time this government, chosen in December 2019 by 43% of voters, is pursuing the old enemy, Brexit, an act to leave the EU decided by a doubtful plebiscite which has consistently failed to be reasserted by the voters of Britain. In December 2019 election 57% of voters supported political parties who were absolutely opposed to leaving the EU – at a time when Britain and Europe faced the threat of another periodic recession as supply exceeded demand.
This was at a time when employment levels were high and steady and economic confidence smiled.
Now, May 2020, that economic smile across the face of Europe – and beyond – has gone.
Capitalist competition is being put on the shelf as co-operation, consideration and containment dominates; while nations hurry to the bank to borrow and the call is for a wartime spirit of community care, a care sorely needing an international social and economic dimension.
I can almost put on one side what are strong economic arguments for the postponement of Brexit. That the UK and EU economies we see today are not the balanced economies we saw even as recent as December 2019 – certainly not remotely like those one year ago.
We need first to clear the enemy the other side of the wall.
As one civil engineer working in the tropics once commented: “When you are up to your backside in alligators one might be forgiven if one forgets the reason for being there was to drain the swamp.”
We need a policy of international coming together not one of fragmentation and chasing ephemeral dreams of some past glory.
When economic balance has been restored and repayment of borrowed money is in hand.
When that wall is dismantled and I can hug my good neighbour or take a foreign trip with good friends.
Then; by all means, take that Brexit chalice down from the shelf and ask the British people again do you wish to drink from it ?
But not now, not now pull the exit pin for January 2021; in God’s name not now.
Don Frampton was a people manager for a large insurance company. He lives in Newton Abbot